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作者：Bacchetta, Philippe; van Wincoop, Eric
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The objective of this paper is to show that the proposal by Froot and Thaler (1990) of delayed portfolio adjustment can account for a broad set of puzzles about the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates. The puzzles include: i) the delayed overshooting puzzle; ii) the forward discount puzzle (or Fama puzzle); iii) the predictability reversal puzzle; iv) the Engel puzzle (high interest rate currencies are stronger than implied by UIP); v) the forward guidance exchange rate puzz...
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作者：Beetsma, Roel; Furtuna, Oana; Giuliodori, Massimo; Mumtaz, Haroon
作者单位：University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; European Central Bank; University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; University of London; Queen Mary University London; University of Amsterdam
摘要：Using a new narrative dataset on fiscal consolidation announcements for thirteen EU countries over the period 1978-2013, a panel VAR analysis shows that revenue-based announcements appear more credible, but affect economic activity more adversely than do spending-based announcements. Higher revenue multipliers and, to a lesser extent, larger actual follow-up following a revenue-based announcement help to explain the difference. The uniqueness of our dataset allows to control for anticipation e...
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作者：Bonadio, Barthelemy; Huo, Zhen; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Yale University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We study the role of global supply chains in the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on GDP growth using a multi-sector quantitative framework implemented on 64 countries. We discipline the labor supply shock across sectors and countries using the fraction of work in the sector that can be done from home, interacted with the stringency with which countries imposed lockdown measures. One quarter of the total model-implied real GDP decline is due to transmission through global supply chains. However...
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作者：Horn, Henrik; Tangeras, Thomas
作者单位：Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Cambridge; Stanford University
摘要：Nearly 2700 international investment agreements protect foreign investment against host country policies. This paper analyzes the design and implications of their contentious provisions regarding regulatory expropriations. It derives conditions under which carve-out compensation mechanisms, similar to those in actual agreements, solve underinvestment and overregulation problems and simultaneously distribute surplus according to countries' bargaining power. The paper examines a number of additi...
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作者：Duch-Brown, Nestor; Grzybowski, Lukasz; Romahn, Andre; Verboven, Frank
作者单位：IMT - Institut Mines-Telecom; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Telecom Paris; Heinrich Heine University Dusseldorf; KU Leuven; University of Cape Town; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Did the Internet make international markets more integrated? To address this question, we study long-term international price differences and their speed of convergence, based on a unique data base for identical goods sold in both online and traditional brick-and-mortar distribution channels, covering ten European countries. We find that long-term international price differences are closely comparable between both distribution channels. Furthermore, international price differences converge onl...
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作者：Le Grand, Francois; Ragot, Xavier
作者单位：emlyon business school; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po)
摘要：This paper presents a positive and normative study of a world financial market when sovereign countries can default on their debt. We construct a tractable model that enables us to study sovereign default in general equilibrium. The amount of safe assets is thus endogenous and determined by international risk-sharing. We characterize the equilibrium structure and we show that the market equilibrium can generate multiple equilibria. In addition, the market equilibrium is not constrained-efficie...
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作者：Bergin, Paul R.; Feng, Ling; Lin, Ching-Yi
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; National Tsing Hua University
摘要：Financial frictions can pose a barrier to export entry by altering a firm's long-term capital structure. The focus on long-term firm financing is motivated by our empirical finding that exporting firms tend to be more leveraged than non-exporting firms in terms of long-term debt, as distinct from short-term working capital. We explain this fact by marrying a corporate finance model of capital structure, featuring an endogenous choice between equity and long-term debt, with a trade model featur...
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作者：Lashkaripour, Ahmad
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington
摘要：Tariff wars have reemerged as a serious threat to the global economy. Yet measuring the prospective cost of a global tariff war remains computationally prohibitive, unless we restrict attention to a small set of countries and industries. This paper develops a new methodology that measures the cost of a global tariff war in one simple step as a function of observable shares, industry-level trade elasticities, and markup wedges. Applying this methodology to data on 44 countries and 56 industries...
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作者：Bassanin, Marzio; Faia, Ester; Patella, Valeria
作者单位：Bank of England; Goethe University Frankfurt; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Sapienza University Rome
摘要：Financial crises originate in debt markets, where beliefs formation about asset values affects the value of collateral, hence the leverage cycles. We introduce novel state-contingent ambiguity attitudes, which endogenously induce pessimism in recessions and optimism in booms, in a model with occasionally binding collateral constraints and exogenous debt supply. Ambiguity is measured in the data through GMM estimation of the Euler equations, and delivers over extrapolative behaviors through for...
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作者：Alessandria, George; Choi, Horag; Ruhl, Kim J.
作者单位：University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research; Monash University; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We introduce time and risk into the fixed-variable cost tradeoff in heterogeneous firm trade models: Investing in exporting gradually and stochastically lowers the costs of exporting. In the model, aggregate trade dynamics arise from producer-level decisions to invest in lowering their future variable export costs, and tariff reforms generate time-varying trade elasticities. The gains from reducing tariffs arise from substituting away from firm creation and towards exporting. This substitution...
