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作者：Alessandria, George; Choi, Horag
作者单位：University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research; Monash University
摘要：We study how changes in trade barriers contributed to the dynamics of the US trade balance and real exchange rate between 1980 and 2015 -a period when trade tripled. Using two dynamic trade models, we decompose fluctuations in the trade balance into terms related to trade integration (global and unilateral) and business cycle asymmetries. We find three main results. First, the relatively large US trade deficits as a share of GDP in the 2000s compared to the 1980s mostly reflect a rise in the t...
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作者：Galli, Carlo
作者单位：Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
摘要：This paper studies the circular relationship between sovereign credit risk, government fiscal and debt policy, and output. I consider a sovereign default model with fiscal policy and private capital accumulation. I show that, when fiscal policy responds to borrowing conditions in the sovereign debt market, multiple equilibria exist where the expectations of lenders are self-fulfilling. In the bad equilibrium, pessimistic beliefs make sovereign debt costly. The government substitutes borrowing ...
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作者：Van Leemput, Eva
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper quantifies the size of internal versus external trade barriers and assesses the trade and welfare impact. I develop a quantitative two-sector international trade model featuring nonhomothetic preferences in which Indian states trade both domestically and internationally. I discipline the model using rich data on price dispersion together with state-based foreign and domestic trade flows. I find that (1) internal trade barriers make up 40% of total trade barriers on average, but vary...
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作者：Ju, Jiandong; Shi, Kang; Wei, Shang-Jin
作者单位：Tsinghua University; Chinese University of Hong Kong; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：This paper studies the effects of trade liberalization on capital flows in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model and makes four contributions. First, we identify an interest rate overdetermination problem in such a model, and solve it with an endogenous discount factor. Second, we show that a trade liberalization in a developing country generally leads to a greater current account surplus, which is the exact opposite of a common but partial equilibrium intuition. Third, factor market reforms reinfor...
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作者：Singh, Rahul; Chanda, Rupa
作者单位：Ahmedabad University; Indian Institute of Management (IIM System); Indian Institute of Management Bangalore
摘要：We estimate the consequences of maintaining restrictive Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) measures on markups for manufacturing firms in India. We combine firm-product level data from Prowess with the data on TBTs that have been raised as a concern by member countries against India in the TBT committee of WTO. We find that higher TBT incidence on intermediate inputs to the industry leads to a decrease in markups for importers relative to non-importers. Firms absorb the increase in marginal cos...
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作者：Bai, Xue; Chatterjee, Arpita; Krishna, Kala; Ma, Hong
作者单位：Brock University; University of New South Wales Sydney; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; National Bureau of Economic Research; Tsinghua University
摘要：This paper develops a new model with heterogeneous firms under perfect competition in a Heckscher-Ohlin setting. We derive a novel prediction regarding the effect of minimum wages on selection, namely that a binding minimum wage will raise (or lower) TFP at the firm and industry level depending on whether the capital intensity of entry costs exceeds (falls short of) that of production. Exploiting rich regional variation in minimum wages across Chinese counties and using firm level production d...
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作者：Kohn, David; Leibovici, Fernando; Szkup, Michal
作者单位：Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; University of British Columbia
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作者：Ferrara, Laurent; Metelli, Luca; Natoli, Filippo; Siena, Daniele
作者单位：SKEMA Business School; Universite Cote d'Azur; European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; Polytechnic University of Milan; European Central Bank; Bank of France; European Central Bank
摘要：The paper re-investigates the effects of government spending shocks on the real exchange rate and inflation, using US data. In opposition to some previous puzzling results, we find that an increase in government spending appreciates the real exchange rate and generates inflationary pressures. Positive spending shocks also induce a trade balance deficit and an increase in the nominal interest rate. The discrepancy with the existing literature lies in the identification of fiscal shocks: embeddi...
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作者：Flach, Lisandra; Irlacher, Michael; Unger, Florian
作者单位：University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Johannes Kepler University Linz; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Gottingen; Johannes Kepler University Linz; University of Gottingen
摘要：This paper analyzes how exporters are affected by corporate tax reforms in destination markets. We introduce tax policy in a trade model of multi-product firms and show that producers face tougher competition in export markets with lower corporate tax rates. This competitive effect induces firms to reduce the number of exported products and to skew their export sales towards the better performing varieties. We estimate the effects of corporate taxes on trade dynamics by exploiting policy refor...
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作者：Ehrmann, Michael
作者单位：European Central Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Inflation targeting is implemented in different ways - typically by adopting point targets, with or without tolerance bands, or by specifying target ranges. Using data for 20 economies (half of which are advanced and emerging market economies, respectively), this paper tests whether the various target types anchor inflation expectations differently. By studying to what extent inflation expectations are responsive to past inflation and how much forecasters disagree, it tests two contradictory h...
