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作者：Metiu, Norbert
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：This paper investigates the international effects of U.S. trade protection. Using micro-level data on anti-dumping, countervailing duties, and safeguards, I develop a new measure of U.S. trade policy announcement shocks for the period 1988-2015 that is free of confounding factors. Es-timates using the new measure indicate that announced, but not yet imposed, U.S. trade re-strictions give rise to contractions in major trading partners' output and investment. Counterfactual results indicate that...
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作者：Chen, Yongmin; Hua, Xinyu; Maskus, Keith E.
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：We study the international protection of consumer data in a model where data from product sales generate additional revenue to firms but disutility to consumers. When data usage lacks transparency, a firm suffers a commitment problem and overuses consumer data. Greater transparency enables the firm to commit to less data usage, which boosts consumer demand and leads to a higher price but also higher output if the firm operates only in one country. A multinational firm faces more challenges whe...
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作者：Weidner, Martin; Zylkin, Thomas
作者单位：University of Oxford; University of Oxford; University of Richmond
摘要：We study the incidental parameter problem for the three-way Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator recently recommended for identifying the effects of trade policies and in other panel data gravity settings. Despite the number and variety of fixed effects involved, we confirm PPML is consistent for fixed T and we show it is in fact the only estimator among a wide range of PML gravity estimators that is generally consistent in this context when T is fixed. At the same time, asymptot...
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作者：Chor, Davin; Manova, Kalina; Yu, Zhihong
作者单位：Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; University College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Nottingham
摘要：Global value chains have fundamentally transformed international trade and development in recent decades. We use matched firm-level customs and manufacturing survey data, together with Input-Output tables for China, to examine how Chinese firms position themselves in global production lines and how this evolves with productivity and performance over the firm lifecycle. We document a sharp rise in the upstreamness of imports, stable positioning of exports, and rapid expansion in production stag...
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作者：Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie; Uribe, Martin
作者单位：Columbia University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper provides microfoundations to the Salter-Swan policy framework, a graphical apparatus designed to ascertain the exchange-rate and fiscal stance of a policymaker with internal and external economic targets. The environment is an infinite-horizon small open economy producing tradable and nontradable goods that takes world prices and world interest rates as given and is populated by optimizing households and firms. The economy is subject to terms of trade, interest rate, and discount fa...
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作者：Gurkaynak, Refet S.; Kara, A. Hakan; Kisacikoglu, Burcin; Lee, Sang Seok
作者单位：Ihsan Dogramaci Bilkent University
摘要：Central banks unexpectedly tightening policy rates often observe the exchange value of their currency depreciate, rather than appreciate as predicted by standard models. We document this for Fed and ECB policy days using event studies and ask whether an information effect, where the public attributes the policy surprise to an unobserved state of the economy, may explain the abnormality. It turns out that many informational assumptions make a standard two country New Keynesian model match this ...
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作者：Crescenzi, Riccardo; Di Cataldo, Marco; Giua, Mara
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Universita Ca Foscari Venezia; Roma Tre University
摘要：Can active investment promotion efforts attract FDI towards areas and sectors that would not otherwise be targeted? This paper leverages an ad hoc survey on national and sub-national In-vestment Promotion Agencies (IPAs) in Europe and applies state-of-the-art policy evaluation methods to estimate the impact of IPAs on FDI attraction. The results show that FDI responds to IPAs even in advanced economies. Sub-national IPAs, operating in closer proximity to inves-tors' operations, attract FDI in ...
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作者：Ludema, Rodney D.; Mayda, Anna Maria; Yu, Zhi; Yu, Miaojie
作者单位：Georgetown University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Renmin University of China; Peking University
摘要：This paper explores the political economy of import protection in a setting where imports may contain a country's own domestic value added (DVA) via domestically-produced inputs that get exported and used in foreign downstream production. We show that import-competing producers and their domestic input suppliers are generally allies in favor of protection, but this alliance weakens as DVA increases, because a home tariff on finished goods decreases foreign demand for home inputs. Empirically, ...
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作者：Ilzetzki, Ethan; Jin, Keyu
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We demonstrate a dramatic change over time in the international transmission of US monetary policy shocks. International spillovers from US interest rate policy have had a different nature since the 1990s than they did in post-Bretton Woods period. Our analysis is based on a panel of 21 high income and emerging market economies. Prior to the 1990s, the US dollar appreciated, and ex-US industrial production declined, in response to increases in the US Federal Funds Rate, as predicted by textboo...
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作者：Bems, Rudolfs; Kikkawa, Ayumu Ken
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of British Columbia
摘要：Global Value Chains have proliferated in economic policy debates. Yet a key concept-trade in value added-is likely mismeasured because of sectoral aggregation bias stemming from reliance on input-output tables. This paper uses comprehensive firm-level data on domestic and international transactions to study this bias. We find that sectoral aggregation leads to overstated trade in value added. The magnitude of the bias varies across countries-at 2-5 p. p. of gross exports for Belgium and 17 p.p...
