-
作者：Gunter, Samara; Riera-Crichton, Daniel; Vegh, Carlos A.; Vuletin, Guillermo
作者单位：Colby College; The World Bank; Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We estimate the effect of worldwide tax changes on output following the narrative approach developed for the United States by Romer and Romer (2010). We use a novel dataset on value-added taxes for 51 countries (21 industrial and 30 developing) for the period 1970-2014 to identify 96 tax changes. We then use contemporaneous economic records to classify such changes as endogenous or exogenous to current (or prospective) economic conditions. In line with theoretical distortionary and disincentiv...
-
作者：Fraiberger, Samuel P.; Lee, Do; Puy, Damien; Ranciere, Romain
作者单位：The World Bank; New York University; International Monetary Fund; University of Southern California; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We investigate the relationship between media sentiment and international equity prices using a new dataset of 4 million news articles published between 1991 and 2015. Three key results emerge. First, news sentiment robustly predicts future daily returns around the world. However, we find a sharp contrast between the effect of local news and that of global news: whereas local news optimism (pessimism) predicts a small and transitory increase (decrease) in local equity returns, global news sent...
-
作者：Ambrocio, Gene; Hasan, Iftekhar
作者单位：Bank of Finland; Fordham University; University of Sydney
摘要：Do stronger political ties with a global superpower improve sovereign borrowing conditions? We use data on voting at the United Nations General Assembly along with foreign aid flows to construct an index of political ties and find evidence that suggests stronger political ties with the US is associated with both better sovereign credit ratings and lower yields on sovereign bonds especially among lower income countries. We use official heads-of-state visits to the White House and coalition forc...
-
作者：Horn, Sebastian; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph
作者单位：University of Munich; Harvard University; University of Kiel
摘要：Compared with China's pre-eminent status in world trade, its role in global finance is poorly understood. This paper studies the size, terms and destination of Chinese official international lending on the basis of a new consensus database of 4900 loans and grants to 146 countries, 1949-2017. Using the loan-level lending data we estimate outstanding debt stocks owed to China for more than 100 developing and emerging economies since 2000. As of 2017, China had become the world's largest officia...
-
作者：Cacciatore, Matteo; Ghironi, Fabio
作者单位：Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：We study how trade linkages affect the conduct of monetary policy in a two-country model with heterogeneous firms, endogenous producer entry, and labor market frictions. We show that the ability of the model to replicate key empirical regularities following trade integration-synchronization of business cycles across trading partners and reallocation of market shares toward more productive firms-is central to understanding how trade costs affect monetary policy trade-offs. First, productivity g...
-
作者：Bohn, Timon; Brakman, Steven; Dietzenbacher, Erik
作者单位：University of Groningen
摘要：The existence of multinational firms and the rise of global value chains raise the question how international trade contributes to a country's income. Ownership relations between, for example, headquarters and subsidiaries result in international income transfers. These transfers are ignored in standard trade data. Taking them into account in a global input-output analysis allows us to assess how much income is generated in one country due to the consumption of final products in another countr...
-
作者：Hambel, Christoph; Kraft, Holger; Schwartz, Eduardo
作者单位：Goethe University Frankfurt; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Simon Fraser University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The recent literature has derived simple formulas for the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) that are easy to interpret, but that only apply to the global economy. This is an issue since international transfers to sustain the global optimum with the same carbon price for all countries are still lacking after thirty years of climate summits. The main research objective of our paper is to obtain tractable analytical and interpretable formulas for the SCC, the optimal carbon taxes, and the optimal consu...
-
作者：Reitz, Stefan; Umlandt, Dennis
作者单位：University of Kiel; Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (IFW); Universitat Trier
摘要：We show that excess returns to the carry trade can be interpreted as compensation for foreign exchange dealers' capital risk. Given that the top market makers in foreign exchange are at the heart of the market's information aggregation process we also suggest that it is their marginal value of wealth which prices FX portfolio returns. Consistent with this hypothesis the empirical results show that shocks to the equity capital ratios of the top three foreign exchange dealers have explanatory po...
-
作者：Niemelainen, Julia
作者单位：University of Helsinki
摘要：In this paper I use a life-cycle model to study the role of population aging and pension income as drivers of China's persistent trade surplus vis-a-vis the United States. China's rapid increase in life expectancy coupled with its relatively low pension expenditures may help to explain the country's high savings rate, persistent trade surpluses and accumulation of a sizable net foreign asset position. Although China's high productivity growth has a strong negative impact on its trade balance, ...
-
作者：Davis, J. Scott; Valente, Giorgio; van Wincoop, Eric
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA); University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Prior to the global financial crisis the empirical international capital flow literature focused on net capital flows (the current account), but since the crisis there has been an increased focus on gross flows. We jointly analyze global drivers of gross outflows, gross inflows, and net flows (outflows minus inflows) by estimating a latent factor model. We find evidence of two global factors, which we call the global financial cycle (GFC) factor and an energy price factor as they closely track...
