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作者：Cordella, Tito; Powell, Andrew
作者单位：The World Bank; Inter-American Development Bank
摘要：International financial institutions (IFIs) generally enjoy preferred creditors treatment (PCT). Although PCT rarely appears in legal contracts, when sovereigns restructure bilateral or commercial debts they normally pay IFIs in full. This paper presents a model where a creditor, such as an IFI, that can commit to lend limited amounts at the risk-free rate and can refrain from lending into arrears is always repaid and adds value. The analysis suggests that IFIs and market lenders can both enha...
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作者：Fernandes, Ana P.; Winters, L. Alan
作者单位：University of Exeter; University of Sussex; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：This paper exploits the Brexit referendum as a quasi-natural experiment to investigate the effect of exchange rate and uncertainty shocks on export volumes, prices, entry and exit. We use transaction-level export data for the universe of exporters in Portugal. Using monthly observations on export quantity and price for products exported by the same firm to buyers in the UK and in other countries allows us to cleanly identify the differential response to the shock in the UK market. We find that...
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作者：Klein, Mathias; Linnemann, Ludger
作者单位：Sveriges Riksbank; Dortmund University of Technology
摘要：The paper presents new empirical evidence on the international effects of surprise and anticipated technology shocks in the US. We employ the proxy-instrumental variable approach to identify structural vector autoregressions in a panel setting and empirically study the transmission of US technology innovations to the G7 countries. Both unanticipated and anticipated exogenous technology improvements lead to a strong and persistent real appreciation (from the point of view of the US), along with...
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作者：Leblebicioglu, Asli; Weinberger, Ariel
作者单位：City University of New York (CUNY) System; Baruch College (CUNY); George Washington University; George Washington University
摘要：This paper studies the response of factor shares to the liberalization episode in India during the 1990's, which is characterized by large and unexpected changes in trade and foreign investment policies. We find that access to foreign capital caused an increase in the labor-to-capital relative factor share. As lower tariffs on capital goods and FDI liberalization reduce the cost of foreign capital, firms increase their use of foreign capital relative to domestic capital. This shift in the comp...
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作者：Bems, Rudolfs; Caselli, Francesca; Grigoli, Francesco; Gruss, Bertrand
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct an index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies since 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks and find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation ...
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作者：Hartwig, Benny; Meinerding, Christoph; Schueler, Yves S.
作者单位：Goethe University Frankfurt; Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：We operationalize the definition of systemic risk provided by the IMF, BIS, and FSB and derive a two-stage hierarchical hypothesis test to identify indicators of systemic risk. Applying the framework to a set of candidate variables for 45 countries, we detect two credit-based financial cycle variables that, by and large, pass our test. However, for many other variables, including the Basel III credit-to-GDP gap, we find that elevated systemic risk is signaled by high values in some countries a...
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作者：Correa-Lopez, Monica; de Blas, Beatriz
作者单位：Banco de Espana; Autonomous University of Madrid
摘要：Large US firms, by diffusing embodied technology through trade in intermediates, appear to drive Europe's output over the medium term. We develop a two-country model of endogenous growth in varieties, cross-country firm heterogeneity and trade to match this evidence. A US TFP slowdown generates a pronounced recession in Europe, while a negative investment-spe-cific shock also imparts a protracted recession in the US since GDP and firm productivity stay below trend beyond a decade. Heterogeneou...
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作者：Sunder-Plassmann, Laura
作者单位：University of Copenhagen
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作者：Bailey, Michael; Gupta, Abhinav; Hillenbrand, Sebastian; Kuchler, Theresa; Richmond, Robert; Stroebel, Johannes
作者单位：Facebook Inc; New York University
摘要：We use de-identified data from Facebook to construct a new and publicly available measure of the pairwise social connectedness between 170 countries and 332 European regions. We find that two countries trade more when they are more socially connected, especially for goods where information frictions may be large. The social connections that predict trade in specific products are those between the regions where the product is produced in the exporting country and the regions where it is used in...
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作者：Keller, Wolfgang; Olney, William W.
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Williams College
摘要：This paper finds that globalization is contributing to the rapid increase in executive compensation. Employing comprehensive data on top executives at major U.S. companies, we show that their compensation is increasing with exports and foreign direct investment, as well as firm size and technology. Exogenous export shocks unrelated to managerial decisions also increase executive compensation, and there is little evidence that this is due to increasing market returns to talent. We do find that ...
