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作者：Greenland, Andrew; Ion, Mihai; Lopresti, John; Schott, Peter K.
作者单位：North Carolina State University; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We propose a method for identifying exposure to changes in trade policy based on asset prices that has several advantages over standard measures: it encompasses all avenues of exposure, it is natively firm-level, it yields estimates for both goods and service producers, and it can be used to study reductions in difficult-to-quantify non-tariff-barriers in a way that controls naturally for broader macroeconomic shocks. Applying our method to two well-studied US trade liberalizations provides ne...
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作者：Costa, Rui; Dhingra, Swati; Machin, Stephen
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：This paper studies consequences of the large exchange rate depreciation occurring when the UK electorate unexpectedly voted to leave the European Union. Sterling plummeted, recording the biggest one-day depreciation of any of the world's four major currencies since Bretton Woods. The prospect of Brexit happening generated sizable differences in how much sterling depreciated against different currencies. Coupled with pre-referendum cross-country trade patterns, this generated variations in exch...
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作者：Grant, Matthew; Soderbery, Anson
作者单位：Dartmouth College; Purdue University System; Purdue University
摘要：The Feenstra (1994) method is widely used in the international trade literature to estimate supply and demand elasticities. The method is mechanically an IV strategy, and we demonstrate that this has important implications for its application and reliability. The assumptions needed for it to yield unbiased estimates are stronger than previously understood, and in practice, estimates are subject to bias due to both weak instruments and violations of the exclusion restriction. We illustrate how ...
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作者：Albagli, Elias; Ceballos, Luis; Claro, Sebastian; Romero, Damian
作者单位：Central Bank of Chile; University of San Diego; Universidad de los Andes - Chile
摘要：We evaluate the behavior of the UIP relationship around monetary policy and global uncertainty shocks using event studies. We find that the covariance between exchange rate movements and changes in long-term yield differentials is conditional on the nature of shocks. A model of partial arbitrage between domestic and US bond markets predicts that tighter US monetary policy appreciates the dollar while increasing US yields relative to domestic bonds, a response that is consistent with UIP forces...
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作者：Tyazhelnikov, Vladimir; Romalis, John
作者单位：University of Sydney; Macquarie University
摘要：Trade and other economic sanctions are a common foreign policy instrument, but their imposition may induce smuggling. We develop and implement procedures to study smuggling after the food embargo imposed by Russia on Western countries after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. We construct predicted trade flows for the post-sanctions period using an estimated structural general equilibrium gravity model with many industry sectors and compare those predictions with actual trade flows. We identify ...
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作者：Demidova, Svetlana; Kucheryavyy, Konstantin; Naito, Takumi; Rodriguez-Clare, Andres
作者单位：McMaster University; City University of New York (CUNY) System; Baruch College (CUNY); Waseda University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：To provide sharp answers to basic questions in international trade, a standard approach is to focus on a small open economy (SOE). Whereas the classic tradition is to define a SOE as an economy that takes world prices as given, in the new trade literature it is defined instead as one that takes foreign-good prices and export demand schedules as given. We develop a gravity model that nests all its standard microfoundations and show how to take the limit so that an economy that becomes infinites...
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作者：Acharya, Viral V.; Rajan, Raghuram G.; Shim, Jack B.
作者单位：Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
摘要：We examine how a sovereign's ability to borrow abroad affects the country's growth and steady-state consumption when the government is both myopic and self-interested. Surprisingly, government myopia can increase a country's access to external borrowing and extend the government's effective horizon, giving it a stake in incentivizing private production and savings despite its self-interest. In a high-saving country, the lengthening of the government's effective horizon can incentivize it to ta...
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作者：Feenstra, Robert C.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis
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作者：Juvenal, Luciana; Petrella, Ivan
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Warwick; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We examine the impact of commodity price changes on the business cycles and capital flows in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), distinguishing between their role as a source of shock and as a channel of transmission of global shocks. Our findings reveal that surges in export prices, triggered by commodity price shocks, boost domestic GDP, an effect further amplified by the endogenous decline of country spreads. However, the effects on capital flows appear muted. Shifts in U.S. ...
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作者：Ascari, Guido; Fosso, Luca
作者单位：European Central Bank; De Nederlandsche Bank NV; University of Pavia; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Central Bank
摘要：A trend-cycle BVAR decomposition investigates the role of different slow-moving trends - i.e., globalization, expectations, automation, labor demand and supply - in shaping the slow-moving dynamics of trend inflation. Despite well-anchored expectations, slow-moving imported costpushfactors induced disinflationary pressure keeping trend inflation below target. The cycle block provides evidence of inflation volatility increasingly driven by international factors. These results can explain why, f...
