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作者：Bloise, Gaetano; Vailakis, Yiannis
作者单位：University of Rome Tor Vergata; University of Glasgow
摘要：We revisit the occurrence of self-fulfilling crises in sovereign debt markets under time -varying interest rates and growth in Eaton and Gersovitz (1981)'s model. We show that, when longterm interest rates exceed growth, insolvency is solely caused by the exhaustion of the sovereign's debt repayment capacity subject to limited commitment. Indeed, high interest rates impose discipline on market sentiments, because creditors necessarily become more optimistic about solvency when the sovereign re...
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作者：Esquivel, Carlos
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
摘要：Capital and its sectoral allocation affect default incentives. Under general assumptions, default risk is decreasing in the total stock of capital and increasing in the share of capital allocated to non-tradable production. This implies that when competitive households make all investment decisions capital has two externalities: a capital-stock externality and a portfolio externality. . These hamper the ability of a benevolent government to make optimal borrowing and default decisions and are ...
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作者：Scholl, Almuth
作者单位：University of Konstanz
摘要：This paper studies how distributional and electoral concerns shape sovereign default incentives within a quantitative model of sovereign debt with heterogeneous agents and non-linear income taxation. The small open economy is characterized by a two-party system in which the left-wing party has a larger preference for redistribution than the right-wing party. Political turnover is the endogenous outcome of the electoral process. Fiscal policy faces a tradeoff: On the one hand, the government ha...
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作者：Grigoli, Francesco; Sandri, Damiano
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt news on household inflation expectations. People tend to underestimate public debt levels and increase inflation expectations when informed about the correct levels. The extent of the revisions is proportional to the size of the information surprise. Confidence in the central bank considerably reduces the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt, while confidence in fiscal auth...
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作者：Yu, Wenbo
摘要：I develop a two-country open economy model featuring asymmetric financial frictions to explain two puzzling observations during the 2008 global financial crisis: (1) real consumption growth declined more in foreign countries than in the US, despite the crisis originating in the US, and (2) the US dollar appreciated against foreign currencies despite a significant deterioration in the US net foreign asset position. Subject to a less stringent financial constraint, the US tends to hold more risk...
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作者：Beauregard, Remy; Christensen, Jens H. E.; Fischer, Eric; Zhu, Simon
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：To study inflation expectations and associated risk premia in emerging bond markets, we provide estimates for Mexico based on an arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model of nominal and real bond prices that accounts for their liquidity risk. Beyond documenting the existence of large and weakly correlated liquidity premia in nominal and real bond prices, our results indicate that long-term inflation expectations in Mexico are well anchored close to the Bank of Mexico's inflation target. Furt...
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作者：De Gregorio, Jose; Garcia, Pablo; Luttini, Emiliano; Rojas, Marco
作者单位：Universidad de Chile; Universidad Adolfo Ibanez; The World Bank; Central Bank of Chile
摘要：We revisit a central question for international macroeconomics: the response of export prices and quantities to movements in the exchange rate (ER). We use granular export data for Chile and study how the effects of ER movements vary over time with the currency of invoicing and the destination of exports. For prices, we find that the short -run effects of bilateral ER movements vanish when controlling for U.S. dollar ER, which supports dominant currency pricing. However, over longer horizons a...
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作者：Egger, Hartmut; Kreickemeier, Udo; Moser, Christoph; Wrona, Jens
作者单位：University of Bayreuth; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Leibniz Institute for Solid State & Materials Research Dresden; University of Gottingen; University of Erlangen Nuremberg; University of Duisburg Essen; University of Bayreuth
摘要：Using linked employer-employee data for Germany, we provide evidence for job polarisation between firms and identify offshoring as an important determinant of these employment changes. To accommodate these findings, we set up a model in which offshoring to a low-wage country can lead to job polarisation in the high-wage country due to a reallocation of labour across firms that differ in productivity and pay wages that are positively linked to their profits. Offshoring is chosen only by the mos...
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作者：Gray, Rowena; Wright, Greg C.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Merced; Brookings Institution
摘要：We estimate the short- and long -run local labor market impacts of the large increase in U.S. imports and exports that occurred over the 1970s. We exploit the sequential opening of overseas shipping container ports over the period, which generated export and import shocks that were largely non -overlapping across U.S. labor markets thereby providing substantial variation to distinguish their effects. We find that the average net impact on the employment -to -population ratio was positive and c...
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作者：Gruber, Noam
摘要：Foreign tech multinationals, which have entered Israel en masse in the past two decades, are known to use high wages to draw in the best talent. While paying higher wages no doubt contributes to the domestic economy, local tech firms have argued that the competition for talent inhibits their growth, and that foreign multinationals contribute less in terms of overall economic value compared to local firms. It is thus of great importance to estimate the foreign firm wage premium - by how much do...
