Using equity market reactions to infer exposure to trade liberalization

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Greenland, Andrew; Ion, Mihai; Lopresti, John; Schott, Peter K.
• 署名单位: North Carolina State University; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104000
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: PNTR; CHINA; CUSFTA; Trade policy

摘要

We propose a method for identifying exposure to changes in trade policy based on asset prices that has several advantages over standard measures: it encompasses all avenues of exposure, it is natively firm-level, it yields estimates for both goods and service producers, and it can be used to study reductions in difficult-to-quantify non-tariff-barriers in a way that controls naturally for broader macroeconomic shocks. Applying our method to two well-studied US trade liberalizations provides new insight into service-sector responses and reveals dramatically different outcomes among small versus large firms, even within narrow industries.