The international dimension of trend inflation☆

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ascari, Guido; Fosso, Luca
• 署名单位: European Central Bank; De Nederlandsche Bank NV; University of Pavia; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Central Bank
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103896
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: Trend-cycle decomposition; trend inflation; Global inflation; Phillips curve

摘要

A trend-cycle BVAR decomposition investigates the role of different slow-moving trends - i.e., globalization, expectations, automation, labor demand and supply - in shaping the slow-moving dynamics of trend inflation. Despite well-anchored expectations, slow-moving imported costpushfactors induced disinflationary pressure keeping trend inflation below target. The cycle block provides evidence of inflation volatility increasingly driven by international factors. These results can explain why, from 2000 in the U.S. and before the recent surge, inflation remained both below target and silent to domestic slack.