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作者：Ben Zeev, Nadav; Nathan, Daniel
作者单位：Ben-Gurion University of the Negev; University of Pennsylvania; Bank of Israel
摘要：This paper examines customer demand-side factors that affect deviation from covered interest rate parity (CIP) with respect to the dollar ( i.e. , cross-currency basis), particularly when arbitrageurs are constrained. Using novel detailed daily transaction-level data on the universe of Israeli institutional investors (IIs), we employ a granular instrumental variable (GIV) estimation to investigate how IIs' FX swap demand affects CIP deviation. Our findings demonstrate that a one standard devia...
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作者：Lind, Nelson; Ramondo, Natalia
作者单位：Emory University; Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We present a model of trade, global innovation, and diffusion, inspired by Eaton and Kortum (1999). The specific structure for innovation and diffusion we propose, which leverages general results developed in our previous work (Lind and Ramondo, 2023a), allows us to measure the flow of ideas across countries and over time. By deriving tractable expressions for productivity and expenditure, we can use easily-available international trade data to estimate both innovation and diffusion rates acro...
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作者：Benguria, Felipe; Wagner, Rodrigo
作者单位：University of Kentucky; Universidad Adolfo Ibanez
摘要：A recent literature emphasizes the prominence of dominant currencies in international trade invoicing and the role of invoice currencies in the transmission of exchange rate shocks. In this paper, we examine the introduction of the euro as a once -in -a -century natural experiment that induced a substantial shifting in invoice currencies, allowing us to test existing theories. We use unique data on the invoice currencies of the universe of export and import transactions of Chilean firms tradin...
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作者：Guimaraes, Bernardo; Sheedy, Kevin D.
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：This paper presents a theory of institutional specialization in which some countries uphold the rule of law while others choose extractive institutions, even when countries are ex -ante identical. The driving force of specialization is that for incumbents in each country, the first steps to the rule of law have the greatest cost. Good institutions require sharing power and rents, but in places where power is already shared broadly, each power base or branch of government underpinning instituti...
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作者：Handley, Kyle; Limbo, Nuno; Ludema, Rodney D.; Yu, Zhi
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; Georgetown University
摘要：We examine the role of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) in shaping the import decisions of firms. In a model where firms must incur sunk costs to adopt new imported varieties of an input, reduction in TPU for a given input increases imports of that input (a substitution effect) possibly other inputs (a scale effect). We explore this in the context of China's accession to WTO, which bound China's tariffs. We find that, controlling for current tariffs, the threat reversion to past high tariffs red...
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作者：Andreasen, Eugenia; Bauducco, Sofia; Dardati, Evangelina
作者单位：Universidad de Chile; Central Bank of Chile; University Diego Portales
摘要：This paper studies the differential effects of capital controls (CCs) on firms' performance depending on the firm's production technology and export status. We empirically characterize the firm's responses to the introduction of a CC using the Chilean encaje implemented between 1991 and 1998. Motivated by the empirical insights, we build a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms, financial constraints and international trade and calibrate it to the Chilean economy. We find that CCs ...
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作者：Helpman, Elhanan
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：Empirical studies have found that enhanced foreign competition can encourage or discourage innovation. To address this relationship, I examine a market structure in which a small number of large multi-product oligopolists compete with a large number of small single-product firms in the same industry. The single-product firms are short-lived while the multi-product firms live forever, and the large firms invest in innovation in order to enlarge their product spans. All firms export. I show that...
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作者：Ahmed, Rashad; Rebucci, Alessandro
作者单位：United States Department of the Treasury; Office of the Comptroller of the Currency; Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：By exploiting changes in the volatility of U.S. Treasury yields and foreign official (FO) flows into U.S. Treasuries after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, we identify a FO flow shock via heteroskedasticity in a structural VAR. We estimate that a $100B FO flow shock moves 5 and 10-year U.S. yields by about 100 basis points within a month. An event study of the intraday U.S. Treasury yield curve response to Japan's FX intervention in September 2022 validates our VAR estimates. Our findings imp...
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作者：von Peter, Goetz; von Dahlen, Sebastian; Saxena, Sweta
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
摘要：This paper examines the patterns of macroeconomic recovery following natural disasters. In a panel with global coverage from 1960 to 2011, we make use of insurer -assessed losses to estimate growth responses conditional on risk transfer. We find that major disasters reduce growth by 1 to 2 percentage points on impact, and over time produce an output cost of 2 % to 4 % of GDP, on top of the initial damage to property and infrastructure. Akin to wars and financial crises, natural disasters have ...
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作者：Seker, Murat; Ulu, Mehmet Fatih; Rodriguez-Delgado, Jose Daniel
作者单位：Turkish Airlines; Koc University; International Monetary Fund
摘要：We build a structural model of multi-product firms to illustrate how access to foreign intermediate goods contributes to product innovation. We establish a stochastic dynamic model of firm evolution and allow firms to be heterogeneous in their efficiency levels. The model's mechanism to capture the effects of importing intermediate goods is twofold: (i) importing these goods increases the revenue per each product introduced, and (ii) increases the likelihood of introducing new varieties using ...
