-
作者：Graziano, Alejandro G.; Handley, Kyle; Limao, Nuno
作者单位：University of Nottingham; University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; Georgetown University
摘要：We estimate the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on CES import price indices, focusing on the implications of Britain's exit from the European Union (Brexit). Our analysis reveals that a higher probability of Brexit increases U.K. import price indices by raising the prices of existing products and reducing product variety from the E.U. We find evidence that the risk of higher import protection from the 2016 referendum increased current import price indices by 11 log points. This amount...
-
作者：Ahmad, Muhammad Farooq; Lambert, Thomas; Martin-Flores, Jose M.; Romec, Arthur
作者单位：SKEMA Business School; Universite Cote d'Azur; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam; CUNEF Universidad
摘要：Democracy matters for international merger activity. Using a sample of 101,834 cross-border deals announced between 1985 and 2018, we show that merger flows predominantly involve acquirers from more democratic countries than their targets. This result is primarily driven by a pullfactor: firms in countries with weaker democratic institutions attract more cross- border deals. We find evidence of bonding as the key mechanism behind this effect. The democracy effect is stronger when target countr...
-
作者：Fadinger, Harald; Herkenhoff, Philipp; Schymik, Jan
作者单位：University of Mannheim; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz
摘要：We examine the effects of unilateral structural reforms within a currency union. Focusing on the surge of German competitiveness following the introduction of the Euro, we first provide reducedform causal evidence supporting the notion that German structural labor -market reforms in the early 2000s led to a crowding -out of manufacturing employment in other Eurozone economies. To assess the impact of this German competitiveness shock, we build a quantitative multi -sector trade model that feat...
-
作者：Lu, Dan; Mariscal, Asier; Mejia, Luis -Fernando
作者单位：Chinese University of Hong Kong
摘要：We uncover new dynamic facts in Colombian manufacturing importers' data. First, imported input switching, a firm's simultaneous adding and dropping of foreign intermediates, is pervasive and a substantial fraction of firm's imports. Second, larger firms switch more conditional on age, whereas younger firms switch more conditional on size. Third, the number of imported varieties increases with firm age. Fourth, inputs of lower expenditure are more frequently dropped. Fifth, firms that switch mo...
-
作者：Fricke, Daniel; Greppmair, Stefan; Paludkiewicz, Karol
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：This paper documents significant cross-border effects of the 2014 US money market fund (MMF) reform on euro area MMFs. As US-based prime funds became less money-like due to the reform, euro area-based prime funds received large inflows from foreign investors. These cross-border flows were mainly motivated by the search for stable NAV instruments. Consistent with an easing of competitive pressure, euro area prime MMFs reduced their risk-taking. Lastly, the 2017 EU MMF regulation, a weaker regul...
-
作者：Jiao, Yang
作者单位：Singapore Management University
摘要：I jointly study the optimal bailout policy and monetary policy in open economies that borrow in foreign currency from international lenders. A policy dilemma emerges during financial crises. Policymakers trade off the benefit of more bailouts alleviating firms' financial constraints against the cost of larger currency devaluation, which tightens firms' financial constraints. I embed the optimal bailout in an otherwise standard sudden stopmodel with nominal rigidities. The model sheds light on ...
-
作者：Davis, J. Scott; van Wincoop, Eric
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：During a downturn in the global financial cycle there is a simultaneous retrenchment in gross capital flows and a fall in risky asset prices. The global financial cycle is closely related to fluctuations in risk appetite. We develop a model that can simultaneously produce a fall in gross outflows, inflows, and asset prices following an increase in global risk aversion. There is heterogeneity across investors within a country in the willingness to hold risky assets and to hold foreign assets. T...
-
作者：Blanchard, Emily J.; Bown, Chad P.; Chor, Davin
作者单位：Dartmouth College; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Peterson Institute for International Economics; Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We uncover evidence that the US-China trade war was consequential for voting outcomes in the 2018 congressional midterm election. Republican House candidates lost support in counties more exposed to tariff retaliation, but saw no appreciable gains in counties that received more direct US tariff protection. The electoral losses were only modestly mitigated by the US agricultural subsidies announced in summer 2018. Republicans also fared worse in counties that had seen recent gains in health ins...
-
作者：Germaschewski, Yin; Horvath, Jaroslav; Rubini, Loris
作者单位：University System Of New Hampshire; University of New Hampshire
摘要：We study how financial frictions affect the importance of trend productivity shocks for macroeconomic fluctuations. Using long-run data from 17 small open economies (SOEs), we compare two variants of a workhorse SOE real business cycle model featuring a debt-elastic interest rate (DEIR), a measure of financial frictions. The first variant estimates the DEIR parameter, while the second fixes it to 0.001, effectively abstracting from financial frictions. On average, ignoring financial frictions ...
-
作者：Gordon, Grey; Guerron-Quintana, Pablo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Boston College
摘要：How do local government borrowing, default, and migration interact? We find in -migration results in excessive debt accumulation due to a key externality: Immigrants help repay previously -issued debt. In addition to providing direct IV evidence on this mechanism, we show cities are heavily indebted, near state -imposed borrowing limits, vulnerable to interest rate increases, and default even after periods of robust population and productivity growth. Our quantitative model reproduces these fe...
