-
作者：Bondarenko, Yevheniia; Lewis, Vivien; Rottner, Matthias; Schueler, Yves
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：Geopolitical risk cannot be measured in a universal way. We develop new geopolitical risk indicators relying on local newspaper coverage to account for different perceptions. Using Russia as a case study, we demonstrate that geopolitical risk shocks identified from local news sources have significant adverse effects on the Russian economy, whereas geopolitical risk shocks identified from English-language news sources do not. We control for restricted press freedom by analyzing state-controlled...
-
作者：Benguria, Felipe; Saffie, Felipe
作者单位：University of Kentucky; University of Virginia
摘要：The impact of the 2018-2019 trade war on total US exports depends on the direct effect of foreign retaliatory tariffs as well as on the ability of US exporters to reorganize global supply chains and redirect exports to other markets, away from retaliating countries. We document that the sharp decline in US exports to retaliating countries was compensated by a gradual increase in exports to other markets. We then develop a model of export reallocation to study the role of financial constraints ...
-
作者：Mrazova, Monika
作者单位：University of Geneva; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：This paper suggests a rationale for the GATT/WTO ban on export subsidies by showing that, in a linear Cournot profit-shifting model in which countries invest in a policy infrastructure before imposing trade policy, an agreement banning export subsidies tends to be more self- enforcing than one banning tariffs. Oligopoly introduces asymmetry between import tariffs and export subsidies: terms-of-trade and profit-shifting effects run in the same direction for import tariffs but in opposite direct...
-
作者：Davis, Josh; Fuenzalida, Cristian; Huetsch, Leon; Mills, Benjamin; Taylor, Alan M.
作者单位：Pacific Investment Management Company, LLC; University of Pennsylvania; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Benchmark finance and macroeconomic models appear to deliver conflicting estimates of the natural rate and bond risk premia. This natural rate puzzle applies not only in the U.S. but across many advanced economies. We use a unified no-arbitrage macro-finance model with two trend factors to estimate the natural rate r* for 10 advanced economies. We cover a longer and wider sample than previous studies and draw on new sources to construct yield curves and excess returns. The two-trend model impr...
-
作者：Rogoff, Kenneth S.; Yang, Yuanchen
作者单位：Harvard University; International Monetary Fund
摘要：China's outsized real estate sector has long been a key engine of growth. However, with decades of construction at break-neck speeds having produced a massive increase in the quantity and quality of China's housing stock, the question arises as to whether diminishing returns are beginning to set in. At the same time, there is the question of whether real estate has been a major driver of today's high levels of local government debt, which may create heightened financial vulnerabilities. We inv...
-
作者：Khalil, Makram; Strobel, Felix
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：We show that the US dollar response to trade policy uncertainty (TPU) is key to assessing the impact of US trade policy. Employing structural vector autoregressive models, we find that TPU shocks supported a multilateral USD appreciation during the 2018-19 trade tensions between the US and some of its major trading partners. We rationalize this in a two-country New Keynesian model with financial frictions that links the increase in TPU to rising demand for safe USD assets. Our findings suggest...
-
作者：Juvenal, Luciana; Petrella, Ivan
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Warwick; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Warwick
摘要：We examine the impact of commodity price changes on the business cycles and capital flows in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), distinguishing between their role as a source of shock and as a channel of transmission of global shocks. Our findings reveal that surges in export prices, triggered by commodity price shocks, boost domestic GDP, an effect further amplified by the endogenous decline of country spreads. However, the effects on capital flows appear muted. Shifts in U.S. ...
-
作者：Biljanovska, Nina; Vardoulakis, Alexandros P.
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We introduce heterogeneity between workers and entrepreneurs in a standard Fisherian model to study Sudden Stop dynamics and optimal policy. The distinction between workers and entrepreneurs introduces a redistributive motive that meaningfully interacts with Fisherian deflation. While in tranquil times redistribution is driven by the relative marginal utilities of consumption, the planner additionally favors entrepreneurs during Sudden Stops to mitigate Fisherian deflation. We show how heterog...
-
作者：Forge, Fabien; Garred, Jason; Kwon, Kyae Lim
作者单位：University of Ottawa
摘要：Poor countries export a remarkably narrow range of products. To what extent have trade preferences targeted to the least developed countries (LDCs) changed this situation? We study a large set of recent reforms to the LDC trade preferences offered by OECD countries. Leveraging trade policy variation by importer, exporter, product and year, we show that tariff reductions have increased the prevalence of positive trade flows. However, new flows have been far more likely to emerge in cases with p...
-
作者：Foellmi, Reto; Hepenstrick, Christian; Torun, David
作者单位：University of St Gallen; Swiss National Bank (SNB); University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：Estimating trade costs is key to understanding the welfare effects of trade liberalizations. Cost minimization implies that the triangle inequality (TI) of international trade costs must hold for any three countries to avoid cross-border arbitrage. We show that re-routing opportunities might arise when trade costs change because a shipment through an intermediary becomes cheaper. The TI captures such re-routing opportunities. However, standard approaches to calculating the gains from trade lib...
