Trade war and peace: US-China trade and tariff risk from 2015-2050

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Alessandria, George; Khan, Shafaat Yar; Khederlarian, Armen; Ruhl, Kim J.; Steinberg, Joseph B.
• 署名单位: University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research; Syracuse University; City University of New York (CUNY) System; Hunter College (CUNY); University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of Toronto
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104066
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: Trade war; trade liberalization; Trade-policy uncertainty (TPU); Trade dynamics; Trade elasticity

摘要

We model trade policy as a Markov process. Using a dynamic exporting model, we estimate how expectations about U.S. tariffs on China have changed around the U.S.-China trade war. We find (i) no increase in the likelihood of a trade war before 2018; (ii) the trade war was initially expected to end quickly but its expected duration grew substantially after 2020; and (iii) the trade war reduced the likelihood that China would face Non-Normal Trade Relations tariffs in the future. Our findings imply the expected mean future U.S. tariff on China rose more under President Biden than under President Trump.