US monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets: The role of trade credit☆

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: London, Melina; Silvestrini, Maeva
• 署名单位: European Commission Joint Research Centre; EC JRC ISPRA Site; Universite PSL; Universite Paris-Dauphine; European Central Bank; Bank of France
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104064
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: US monetary policy; spillovers; Trade credit; Emerging markets; capital flows

摘要

This paper provides empirical evidence on the impact of US monetary policy surprises on firm- to-firm trade credit in emerging markets, using a proprietary firm-level database. We show that trade credit acts as a buffer against the adverse effects of US monetary tightening, which, by constraining global financial conditions, increases reliance on trade credit as an alternative financing source. This effect is more pronounced for buyers with poor credit quality, who are primarily affected when financial conditions tighten. This later effect only exists in pre-existing relationships, where trust can be more readily established, compared to new partnerships. Given the widespread use of trade credit in emerging markets, this buffering role is crucial for mitigating financial pressures in these economies.