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作者：Varraso, Paolo
作者单位：University of Rome Tor Vergata
摘要：I study the optimal design of fiscal policy, with and without commitment, in collateral-constraint models where the households' borrowing capacity is linked to the economy's real exchange rate. When the collateral constraint is binding, increasing public spending raises the real exchange rate and stabilizes private consumption. However, by making potential crises less costly, higher spending also makes borrowing more attractive. I show that the Ramsey-optimal policy entails a commitment to res...
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作者：Baumgartner, Martin; Zahner, Johannes
作者单位：Justus Liebig University Giessen; Goethe University Frankfurt
摘要：Dictionary-based methods represent the most commonly used approach for quantifying the qualitative information from (central bank) communication. In this paper, we propose machine learning models that generates embeddings from words and documents. Embeddings are multidimensional numerical text representations that capture the underlying semantic relationships within text. Using a novel corpus of 22,000 documents from 128 central banks, we generate the first domain-specific embeddings for centr...
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作者：Irastorza-Fadrique, Aitor; Levell, Peter; Parey, Matthias
作者单位：University of Surrey
摘要：We study the impact of Chinese import competition in the 2000s on workers and their households in England and Wales. We document both the direct employment changes of individuals affected by trade exposure, as well as the employment response of individuals whose partner is exposed to trade. We find substantial differences by gender. Men respond to import competition by increasing labour force participation at older ages, and by moving into self-employment. This is true both in response to thei...
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作者：Imbs, Jean; Pauwels, Laurent
作者单位：New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi
摘要：We introduce a model-based approximation for assessing foreign exposure via direct and indirect trade. In the model, exposure can be approximated by the fraction of production sold abroad, either directly or indirectly. Simulations show that this ratio accurately reflects the responses of value added to foreign supply shocks across most of the parameter space. It also effectively captures the responses of value added to foreign demand or trade shocks for a more restricted range of parameters. ...
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作者：Jones, Callum; Rabanal, Pau
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; International Monetary Fund
摘要：We use a two-country model with financial frictions and fiscal policy to study the role that changes in credit and fiscal positions play in explaining current account fluctuations. We estimate the model using data for the U.S. and a rest-of-the-world aggregate. We find that about 32 percent of U.S. current account balance fluctuations are due to domestic credit shocks, while fiscal shocks explain about 21 percent. Simple macroprudential rules that react to domestic credit conditions and counte...
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作者：Poilly, Celine; Tripier, Fabien
作者单位：Aix-Marseille Universite; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Universite PSL; Laboratoire dEconomie de Dauphine LEDa; Universite Paris-Dauphine
摘要：Higher trade policy uncertainty has recessionary effects on U.S. states. To demonstrate this, we first build a novel empirical measure of regional trade policy uncertainty based on the volatility of national import tariffs at the sectoral level and on the sectoral composition of imports in U.S. states. We find that a state that is more exposed to an unanticipated increase in tariff volatility suffers from a larger drop in real GDP and employment than the average U.S. state. We then build a two...
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作者：Choi, Jaerim; Hyun, Jay; Kim, Gueyon; Park, Ziho
作者单位：Yonsei University; University of Alberta; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz; National Taiwan University
摘要：We study the role of offshoring in understanding long-run environmental impacts of trade liberalization and the cleanup of US manufacturing. Leveraging establishment-level pollution emissions and business activity data and a change in US trade policy toward China in the early 2000s, we show that US establishments decrease toxic emissions in response to a reduction in trade policy uncertainty. Emission abatement is mainly driven by a decline in pollution emission intensity. We provide comprehen...
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作者：Gopinath, Gita; Meyer, Josefin; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Harvard University
摘要：Theory suggests that corporate and sovereign bonds are fundamentally different, also because sovereign debt has no bankruptcy mechanism and is hard to enforce. We show empirically that the two assets are more similar than you think, at least when it comes to high-yield bonds over the past 20 years. We use rich new data to compare high-yield US corporate (junk) bonds to highyield emerging market sovereign bonds, 2002-2021. Investor experiences in these two asset classes were surprisingly aligne...
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作者：Mac Mullen, Marcos; Woo, Soo Kyung
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Sejong University
摘要：This paper studies the drivers of the US real exchange rate (RER), with a particular focus on its comovement with net trade (NT) flows. We consider the entire spectrum of frequencies, as the low-frequency variation accounts for 62 and 64 percent of the unconditional variance of the RER and NT, respectively. We develop a generalization of the standard international business cycle model that successfully rationalizes the joint dynamics of the RER and NT while accounting for the major puzzles of ...
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作者：Alessandri, Piergiorgio; Mumtaz, Haroon
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; University of London; Queen Mary University London
摘要：We study the impact of temperature risk on economic growth exploiting a novel panel VAR model and data on 160 countries since the 1960s. We show that the conditional volatility of annual temperatures-a measure of ex ante temperature risk-varied significantly over time, with important implications for growth. Controlling for concomitant changes in temperature levels, an exogenous +1 degrees C increase in temperature risk causes on average a 0.4 per cent decline in GDP growth and a one per cent ...
