Unintended consequences of environmental regulation of maritime shipping: Carbon leakage to air shipping

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Lugovskyy, Volodymyr; Skiba, Alexandre; Terner, David
• 署名单位: Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; University of Wyoming
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104081
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: Environmental regulation; Ocean transportation; Air transportation; International Maritime Organization; Pollution leakage

摘要

We assess the expected impact of the upcoming International Maritime Organization's CO2 emissions cap on global maritime shipping. Using detailed data on U.S. imports-covering vessels, routes, emissions, and trade-we estimate a model that allows for substitution between maritime, air, and land transport. Our findings show that the cap will drive a shift to more carbon-intensive air and land transport, leading to an overall increase in transportation-related CO2 emissions in both the short- and long-run. Additionally, it will cause significant welfare losses. Our findings support a case for more efficient alternative policy options.