Regional trade policy uncertainty

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Poilly, Celine; Tripier, Fabien
• 署名单位: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Aix-Marseille Universite; Universite PSL; Universite Paris-Dauphine; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Laboratoire dEconomie de Dauphine LEDa
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104078
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: Uncertainty shocks; TARIFFS; Regional effects; precautionary behavior

摘要

Higher trade policy uncertainty has recessionary effects on U.S. states. To demonstrate this, we first build a novel empirical measure of regional trade policy uncertainty based on the volatility of national import tariffs at the sectoral level and on the sectoral composition of imports in U.S. states. We find that a state that is more exposed to an unanticipated increase in tariff volatility suffers from a larger drop in real GDP and employment than the average U.S. state. We then build a two-region open-economy model and find that the precautionary saving behavior is the main driver of the recession, although this effect is reinforced by high exposure to import tariffs. The feedback effect resulting from trade connections with the Foreign country primarily influences the persistence of these dynamics.