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作者：Ambrus, Attila; Greiner, Ben; Pathak, Parag A.
作者单位：Duke University; University of New South Wales Sydney; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper experimentally investigates how individual preferences, through unrestricted deliberation, are aggregated into a group decision in two contexts: reciprocating gifts and choosing between lotteries. In both contexts, we find that median group members have a significant impact on the group decision, but the median is not the only influential group member. Non-median members closer to the median tend to have more influence than other members. By investigating the same individual's influ...
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作者：Gustman, Alan L.; Steinmeier, Thomas L.
作者单位：Dartmouth College; Texas Tech University System; Texas Tech University
摘要：An enhanced version of a structural model jointly explains benefit claiming, wealth and retirement, including reversals from states of lesser to greater work. The model is estimated with Health and Retirement Study data. Alternative beliefs about the future of Social Security affect claiming behavior. Effects of three potential policies are also examined: increasing the early entitlement age, increasing the full retirement age, and eliminating the payroll tax for seniors. Predicted responses t...
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作者：Ravallion, Martin; Chen, Shaohua
作者单位：Georgetown University; National Bureau of Economic Research; The World Bank
摘要：In what is probably the largest cash transfer program in the world today China's Dibao program aims to fill all poverty gaps. In theory, the program creates a poverty trap, with 100% benefit withdrawal rate (BWR). But is that what we see in practice? The paper proposes an econometric method of estimating the mean BWR allowing for incentive effects, measurement errors and correlated latent heterogeneity. Under the method's identifying assumptions, a feasible instrumental variables estimator cor...
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作者：Kerkhof, Anna; Muenster, Johannes
作者单位：University of Cologne
摘要：We study the welfare effect of a quantity restriction on advertising in free-to-air television (and other advertising financed media) in the presence of commercial media bias. Broadcasters face a trade-off between increasing the number of viewers by sending content that is highly valued by viewers, and increasing the price of advertising by choosing advertiser friendly content. A cap on advertising drives the per-viewer price of ads up; thus, content improves for viewers. Therefore, the cap ca...
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作者：Denter, Philipp; Sisak, Dana
作者单位：Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Tinbergen Institute
摘要：We explore how public opinion polls affect candidates' campaign spending in political competition. Generally, polls lead to (more) asymmetric behavior. Under a majority rule, there always exists an equilibrium in which the initially more popular candidate invests more in the campaign and thereby increases her lead in expectation: polls create momentum. When campaigning is very effective and the race is very close, a second type of equilibrium may exist: The trailing candidate outspends and ove...
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作者：Lim, Claire S. H.; Snyder, James M., Jr.
作者单位：Cornell University; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We investigate the influence of electoral rules on voting behavior and the quality of judges, using newly collected data on judicial elections and ratings from 39 U.S. states. We find that in partisan elections, where candidates' party affiliations are listed on the ballot, party drives voting behavior and candidate quality has little effect on outcomes. In nonpartisan elections, where party affiliation is not on the ballot, party has a much smaller influence on voting behavior and candidate q...
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作者：Filiz-Ozbay, Emel; Guryan, Jonathan; Hyndman, Kyle; Kearney, Melissa; Ozbay, Erkut Y.
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Texas System; University of Texas Dallas
摘要：This paper presents the results of a laboratory experiment designed to investigate whether the option of a Prize Linked Savings (PLS) product alters the likelihood that subjects choose to delay payment. By comparing PLS and standard savings products in a controlled way, we find strong evidence that a PLS payment option leads to greater rates of payment deferral than does a straightforward interest payment option of the same expected value. The appeal of the PLS option is strongest among men an...
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作者：Swensen, Isaac D.
作者单位：Montana State University System; Montana State University Bozeman
摘要：Drug-overdose deaths, which have more than doubled over the past decade, represent a growing public-health concern. Though substance-abuse treatment may be effective in reducing drug abuse, evidence for a causal effect of treatment on drug-related mortality is lacking. I analyze the effect of substance-abuse treatment on mortality by exploiting county-level variation in treatment facilities driven by facility openings and closings. The estimates indicate that a 10% increase in facilities lower...
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作者：Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio
作者单位：Universidad de los Andes (Colombia)
摘要：Using monthly data constructed from futures markets on presidential election outcomes and a novel proxy for firearm purchases, this paper analyzes the response of the demand for guns to the likelihood of Barack Obama being elected in 2008. Point estimate suggests the existence of a large Obama effect on the demand for guns. This political effect is larger than the effect associated with the worsening economic conditions. This paper presents robust empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis t...
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作者：Blundell, Richard; Graber, Michael; Mogstad, Magne
作者单位：University of London; University College London; University of Chicago; Statistics Norway
摘要：What do labor income dynamics look like over the life-cycle? What is the relative importance of persistent shocks, transitory shocks and heterogeneous profiles? To what extent do taxes, transfers and the family attenuate these various factors in the evolution of life-cycle inequality? In this paper, we use rich Norwegian population panel data to answer these important questions. We let individuals with different education levels have a separate income process; and within each skill group, we a...
