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作者：Christensen, Jens H. E.; Rudebusch, Glenn D.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：The downtrend in U.S. interest rates over the past two decades may partly reflect a decline in the longer-run equilibrium real rate of interest. We examine this issue using dynamic term structure models that account for time-varying term and liquidity risk premiums and are estimated directly from prices of individual inflation-indexed bonds. Our finance-based approach avoids two potential pitfalls of previous macroeconomic analyses: structural breaks at the zero lower bound and misspecificatio...
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作者：Cai, Xiqian; Lu, Yi; Pan, Jessica; Zhong, Songfa
作者单位：Xiamen University; Tsinghua University; National University of Singapore
摘要：We examine gender differences in the response to competitive pressure using data from the most competitive entrance exam-China's Gaokao. Compared to male students, females underperform on the competitive and high-stakes Gaokao, relative to their performance on the low-stakes mock examination. Moreover, women's performance suffers more than men's in response to negative performance shocks in an earlier exam on the same day. These effects are more pronounced for subgroups of students where the s...
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作者：Garin, Julio; Lester, Robert; Sims, Eric
作者单位：Claremont Colleges; Claremont McKenna College; Claremont Graduate University; Colby College; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The basic New Keynesian model predicts that positive supply shocks are less expansionary at the zero lower bound (ZLB) compared to periods of active monetary policy. We test this prediction empirically using Fernald's (2014) utilization-adjusted total factor productivity series, which we take as a measure of exogenous productivity. In contrast to the predictions of the model, positive productivity shocks are estimated to be more expansionary at the ZLB compared to normal times. We find that th...
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作者：Obstfeld, Maurice; Ostry, Jonathan D.; Qureshi, Mahvash S.
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); International Monetary Fund
摘要：This paper examines the claim that exchange rate regimes are of little salience in the transmission of global financial conditions to domestic financial and macroeconomic conditions by focusing on a sample of about forty emerging market countries over 1986 to 2013. Our findings show that exchange rate regimes do matter. The transmission of global financial shocks to domestic credit and house price growth, as well as to banking sector leverage and domestic output, is magnified under fixed excha...
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作者：Lafortune, Jeanne; Lewis, Ethan; Tessada, Jose
作者单位：Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile; Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper estimates the elasticity of substitution between capital and skill in manufacturing using immigration-induced variation in skill mix across U.S. counties between 1860 and 1930. We find that capital initially complemented both high- and low-skill labor (determined by literacy) and, unlike today, was more complementary with low-skill labor. Around 1890, capital increased its relative complementarity with high-skill labor. Simulations calibrated to our estimates imply the level of capi...
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作者：Siemer, Michael
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：Employment declined substantially during the 2007-2009 recession, especially in small and young firms. Using confidential firm-level data of the universe of firms and a difference-in-differences methodology, this paper estimates that financial constraints reduced employment growth by 4 to 8 percentage points in small firms relative to large firms and by 7 to 9 percentage points in young relative to old firms. I find that the effect of financial constraints on small firms is driven to a large e...
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作者：Jakiela, Pamela; Ozier, Owen
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; IZA Institute Labor Economics; The World Bank
摘要：We estimate the impact of Kenya's postelection crisis on individual risk preferences. The crisis interrupted a longitudinal survey of more than five thousand Kenyan youth, creating plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to civil conflict prior to the survey. Our results indicate that the postelection crisis sharply increased individual risk aversion. Immediately after the crisis, the fraction of subjects displaying extreme risk aversion increased by more than 80%. Findings remain robust whe...
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作者：Shertzer, Allison; Walsh, Randall P.
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Residential segregation by race grew sharply during the early twentieth century as black migrants from the South arrived in northern cities. Using newly assembled neighborhood-level data, we provide the first systematic evidence on the impact of prewar population dynamics within cities on the emergence of the American ghetto. Leveraging exogenous changes in neighborhood racial composition, we show that white flight in response to black arrivals was quantitatively large and accelerated between ...
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作者：Banks, James; Carvalho, Leandro S.; Perez-Arce, Francisco
作者单位：University of Manchester; University of Southern California
摘要：This paper studies the causal effect of education on decision making. In 1972, England raised its minimum school-leaving age from 15 to 16 for students born after September 1, 1957. An online survey was conducted with 2,700 individuals born in a 36-month window on either side of this date. Participants made 25 incentivized risk choices that allow us to measure multiple dimensions of decision making. Despite the policy having effects on education, educational qualifications, and income, we find...
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作者：Bennett, Daniel; Yin, Wesley
作者单位：University of Southern California; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：This study examines the effect of chain store entry on drug quality and prices in India. In contrast to prevailing mom-and-pop pharmacies, chains exploit scale economies in distribution and signaling to offer high-quality drugs at lower cost. We show that chain entry leads to a 5% improvement in drug quality and a 2% decrease in prices at incumbent retailers. Effects are larger for locally distributed drug brands but do not depend on consumer SES. Our findings suggest that in markets with asym...
