Are Supply Shocks Contractionary at the ZLB? Evidence from Utilization-Adjusted TFP Data

• 成果类型: Review
• 署名作者: Garin, Julio; Lester, Robert; Sims, Eric
• 署名单位: Claremont Colleges; Claremont McKenna College; Claremont Graduate University; Colby College; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00723
• 发表日期: 2019-03
• 页码: 160-175
• 关键词: business-cycle; US; expectations; TECHNOLOGY; inflation

摘要

The basic New Keynesian model predicts that positive supply shocks are less expansionary at the zero lower bound (ZLB) compared to periods of active monetary policy. We test this prediction empirically using Fernald's (2014) utilization-adjusted total factor productivity series, which we take as a measure of exogenous productivity. In contrast to the predictions of the model, positive productivity shocks are estimated to be more expansionary at the ZLB compared to normal times. We find that there is no significant difference in the response of expected inflation to a productivity shock at the ZLB compared to normal times.