A Tie That Binds: Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Obstfeld, Maurice; Ostry, Jonathan D.; Qureshi, Mahvash S.
• 署名单位: National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); International Monetary Fund
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00740
• 发表日期: 2019-05
• 页码: 279-293
• 关键词: exchange-rate regimes; monetary-policy; interest-rates; transmission; CRISIS

摘要

This paper examines the claim that exchange rate regimes are of little salience in the transmission of global financial conditions to domestic financial and macroeconomic conditions by focusing on a sample of about forty emerging market countries over 1986 to 2013. Our findings show that exchange rate regimes do matter. The transmission of global financial shocks to domestic credit and house price growth, as well as to banking sector leverage and domestic output, is magnified under fixed exchange rate regimes relative to more flexible (though not necessarily fully flexible) exchange rate regimes.