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作者：Baumeister, Christiane; Korobilis, Dimitris; Lee, Thomas K.
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Glasgow
摘要：We evaluate alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market fundamentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. World industrial production is one of the most useful indicators. However, by combining measures from several different sources, we can do even better. Our analysis results in a new index of global economic conditions and measures for assessing future energy demand and oil price pressures. We illustrate their...
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作者：Gautier, Erwan; Le Bihan, Herve
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of France; Banco de Espana
摘要：Sectoral heterogeneity matters for monetary policy. Using CPI microdata, we estimate for 227 products a time-varying menu-cost model to investigate the quantitative relevance of this heterogeneity. We find a substantial degree of cross-sectoral heterogeneity in all structural parameters. Heterogeneity in the Calvo component of the pricing friction is, however, the main source of heterogeneity in price rigidity. Cross-sectoral heterogeneity amplifies the output effect of a monetary shock by a f...
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作者：Bai, Jie; Gazze, Ludovica; Wang, Yukun
作者单位：Harvard University; University of Warwick; Cornell University
摘要：The existence of collective reputation implies an important externality. Among firms trading internationally, quality shocks about one firm's products could affect the demand of other firms from the same origin country. We study such a reputation spillover in the context of a large-scale scandal that affected the Chinese dairy industry in 2008. Leveraging detailed firm-product level administrative data and official quality inspection reports, we document sizable reputation spillovers on uncont...
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作者：Britto, Diogo G. C.
作者单位：Bocconi University
摘要：Lump-sum job displacement policies (e.g., severance pay) are often presented as a better alternative to contingent policies (e.g., unemployment insurance) in the context of developing countries, under the rationale that the former are less harmful to formal employment as they do not incentivize substitution from formal to informal jobs. First, this paper provides original evidence on the employment effects of lump-sum income in the context of a developing country with high labor informality. A...
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作者：Murphy, David M. A.; Nourani, Vesall; Lee, David R.
作者单位：Colgate University; University of Chicago; Cornell University
摘要：This paper shows the causal relationship between mutual religious association and the formation of social ties. We analyze dyadic relationships and show that joint attendance at a religious institution (RI) increases the probability of sharing information with and trusting a peer. We use a novel spatial instrumental variable strategy that combines insights from homestead inheritance institutions with triangular distances between peers and RI locations within villages in Kenya. We find that sha...
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作者：Arellano-Bover, Jaime
作者单位：University of Rome Tor Vergata; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：Using data on adults' cognitive skills from nineteen countries, this paper shows that labor market conditions during the education-to-work transition affected workers' long-term skill development. Workers who faced higher unemployment rates at ages 18 to 25 have lower skills at ages 36 to 59. Unemployment rates at ages 26 to 35 do not have such an effect. Skill inequality is affected: those with less educated parents experience most of the negative effects. Using German panel data on skills, I...
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作者：Gaessler, Fabian; Wagner, Stefan
作者单位：European School of Management & Technology
摘要：Pharmaceutical firms enjoy market exclusivity for new drugs from concurrent patent protection and exclusivity of the clinical trials data submitted for market approval. Patent invalidation during drug development renders data exclusivity the sole source of protection and shifts the period of market exclusivity. In instrumental variables regressions, we quantify the effect of a one-year reduction in expected market exclusivity on the likelihood of drug commercialization. The effect is largely d...
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作者：Lewis, Daniel J.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：Identification via heteroskedasticity exploits variance changes between regimes to identify parameters in simultaneous equations. Weak identification occurs when shock variances change very little or multiple variances change close to proportionally, making standard inference unreliable. I propose an F-test for weak identification in a common simple version of the model. More generally, I establish conditions for validity of nonconservative robust inference on subsets of the parameters, which ...
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作者：Eo, Yunjong; Morley, James
作者单位：Korea University; University of Sydney
摘要：Since the Great Recession in 2007-2009, U.S. real GDP has failed to return to its previously projected path, a phenomenon widely associated with secular stagnation. We investigate whether this stagnation was due to hysteresis effects from the Great Recession, a persistent negative output gap following the recession, or slower trend growth for other reasons. To do so, we develop a new Markov-switching time series model of output growth that accommodates two different types of recessions: those ...
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作者：Dominguez, Patricio
作者单位：Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
摘要：This paper analyzes crime as a function of the interaction between offenders and victims. I study robbery of bus drivers, a crime that remains common in cities throughout the world. Exploiting the timing of a Chilean public transportation reform and detailed administrative data, I show how victims' propensity to resist an attack can alter the level and nature of criminal activity. I also find a large decline in crime after the implementation of a technological innovation that eliminated cash t...
