Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Baumeister, Christiane; Korobilis, Dimitris; Lee, Thomas K.
• 署名单位: University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Glasgow
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00977
• 发表日期: 2022-07
• 页码: 828-844
• 关键词: vector autoregressions; real price; OIL; demand; uncertainty; MODEL

摘要

We evaluate alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market fundamentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. World industrial production is one of the most useful indicators. However, by combining measures from several different sources, we can do even better. Our analysis results in a new index of global economic conditions and measures for assessing future energy demand and oil price pressures. We illustrate their usefulness for quantifying the main factors behind the severe contraction of the global economy and the price risks faced by shale oil producers in early 2020.