Why Has the US Economy Stagnated since the Great Recession?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Eo, Yunjong; Morley, James
• 署名单位: Korea University; University of Sydney
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00957
• 发表日期: 2022-03
• 页码: 246-258
• 关键词: transitory components; business-cycle; beveridge-nelson; plucking model; time-series; permanent; output; fluctuations; decompositions; asymmetry

摘要

Since the Great Recession in 2007-2009, U.S. real GDP has failed to return to its previously projected path, a phenomenon widely associated with secular stagnation. We investigate whether this stagnation was due to hysteresis effects from the Great Recession, a persistent negative output gap following the recession, or slower trend growth for other reasons. To do so, we develop a new Markov-switching time series model of output growth that accommodates two different types of recessions: those that permanently alter the level of real GDP and those with only temporary effects. We also account for structural change in trend growth. Estimates from our model suggest that the Great Recession generated a large, persistent negative output gap rather than any substantial hysteresis effects, with the economy eventually recovering to a lower trend path that appears to be due to a reduction in productivity growth that began prior to the onset of the Great Recession.