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作者：Fuster, Andreas; Perez-Truglia, Ricardo; Wiederholt, Mirko; Zafar, Basit
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We use a survey experiment to generate direct evidence on how people acquire and process information. Participants can buy different information signals that could help them forecast future national home prices. We elicit their valuations and exogenously vary the cost of information. Participants put substantial value on their preferred signal and, when acquired, incorporate the signal in their beliefs. However, they disagree on which signal to buy. As a result, making information cheaper does...
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作者：Muller, Ulrich K.; Stock, James H.; Watson, Mark W.
作者单位：Princeton University; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We develop a Bayesian latent factor model of the joint long-run evolution of GDP per capita for 113 countries over the 118 years from 1900 to 2017. We find considerable heterogeneity in rates of convergence, including rates for some countries that are so slow that they might not converge (or diverge) in century-long samples, and a sparse correlation pattern (convergence clubs) between countries. The joint Bayesian structure allows us to compute a joint predictive distribution for the output pa...
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作者：Barrera-Osorio, Felipe; Blakeslee, David S.; Hoover, Matthew; Linden, Leigh; Raju, Dhushyanth; Ryan, Stephen P.
作者单位：Vanderbilt University; New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi; Gallup, Inc.; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; IZA Institute Labor Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research; The World Bank; Washington University (WUSTL); Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We evaluate a program that recruited local entrepreneurs to open and operate new schools in 200 underserved villages in Sindh, Pakistan. School operators received a per student subsidy to provide tuition-free primary education, and half the villages received a higher subsidy for females. The program increased enrollment by 32 percentage points and test scores by 0.63 standard deviations, with no difference across the two subsidy schemes. Estimating a structural model of the demand and supply f...
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作者：Anderson, Katharine A.; Richards-Shubik, Seth
作者单位：Lehigh University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper studies productivity and preferences in scientific research. Collaboration is increasingly important for innovation in science and other domains, but we have limited understanding of the factors researchers use to choose their collaborators and the projects they work on. Here, we use a model of strategic network formation and a recently developed econometric method to examine this question in the context of economics researchers. We learn that research teams with more collaborators ...
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作者：Okada, Toshihiro
作者单位：Kwansei Gakuin University
摘要：This paper develops and estimates a New Keynesian (NK) model with endogenous technology. It shows that introducing endogenous technology can solve three important puzzles that conventional NK models face: the inflation persistence, disinflationary news shock, and zero lower bound (ZLB) supply shock. First, the observed persistence in inflation is explained without relying on the conventional NK models' additional assumptions (e.g., backward price indexation). Second, it explains the observed d...
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作者：Hospido, Laura; Laeven, Luc; Lamo, Ana
作者单位：Banco de Espana; IZA Institute Labor Economics; European Central Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We examine gender differences in career progression and promotions using personnel data from the European Central Bank (ECB) during the period 2003-2017. A gender wage gap emerges within a few years of hiring, despite broadly similar entry conditions. We also find a gender promotion gap before 2010 when the ECB issued a public commitment to diversity. Following this change, the promotion gap disappears. Using data on promotion applications, we find a gender application bias, partly driven by p...
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作者：Hsieh, Chih-Sheng; Koenig, Michael D.; Liu, Xiaodong
作者单位：National Taiwan University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Tinbergen Institute; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
摘要：This paper introduces a structural model for the coevolution of networks and behavior. We characterize the equilibrium of the underlying game and adopt the Bayesian Double Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to estimate the model. We further extend the model to incorporate unobserved heterogeneity and show that ignoring this heterogeneity can lead to biased estimates in simulation experiments. We apply the model to study R&D investment and collaboration decisions in the chemical and pharmaceutical i...
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作者：Cervellati, Matteo; Esposito, Elena; Sunde, Uwe
作者单位：University of Bologna; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Munich
摘要：This paper presents the first systematic investigation of the effect of epidemic shocks on civil violence. The identification exploits exogenous within cell x year variation in conditions that are suitable for malaria transmission using a panel database with month-by-month variation at a resolution of 1 degrees x1 degrees latitude/longitude for Africa. Suitable conditions increase civil violence in areas with populations susceptible to epidemic outbreaks. The effect is immediate, related to th...
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作者：de Mel, Suresh; McIntosh, Craig; Sheth, Ketki; Woodruff, Christopher
作者单位：University of Peradeniya; University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of California System; University of California Merced; University of Oxford
摘要：We introduce a new mobile money interface that permits Sri Lankans to deposit mobile airtime balances directly into a formal bank account. Randomizing access and prices, we find a small increase in savings deposits with the partner institution and formal banks more generally, but no change in overall savings. When the deposit transaction costs are completely removed, only 26% use the mobile deposit service and only 7% use it frequently. Our results imply that deposit transaction costs are not ...
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作者：Bhalotra, Sonia; Karlsson, Martin; Nilsson, Therese; Schwarz, Nina
作者单位：University of Warwick; University of Duisburg Essen; Lund University; Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN); University of Duisburg Essen
摘要：We identify earnings impacts of exposure to an infant health intervention in Sweden, using individual-linked administrative data to trace potential mechanisms. Leveraging quasi-random variation in eligibility, we estimate that exposure was associated with higher test scores in primary school for boys and girls. However, only girls were more likely to score in the top quintile. Subsequent gains, in secondary schooling, employment, and earnings, are restricted to girls. We show that the differen...
