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作者：Bazzi, Samuel; Blair, Robert A.; Blattman, Christopher; Dube, Oeindrila; Gudgeon, Matthew; Peck, Richard
作者单位：Boston University; Brown University; University of Chicago; United States Military Academy; United States Department of Defense; United States Army; Northwestern University
摘要：How feasible is violence early-warning prediction? Colombia and Indonesia have unusually fine-grained data. We assemble two decades of local violent events alongside hundreds of annual risk factors. We attempt to predict violence one year ahead with a range of machine learning techniques. Our models reliably identify persistent, high-violence hot spots. Violence is not simply autoregressive, as detailed histories of disaggregated violence perform best, but socioeconomic data substitute well fo...
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作者：Balestra, Simone; Eugster, Beatrix; Liebert, Helge
作者单位：University of St Gallen; University of Zurich
摘要：In light of the debate over inclusive education, this paper evaluates the impact of exposure to special needs (SN) peers. More classroom peers with SN lower performance, the probability of entering postcompulsory education, and income at ages 17 to 25. SN students and students at the lower end of the achievement distribution suffer most from higher inclusion. We analyze the effects of reallocation policies to alleviate negative externalities, and demonstrate that inclusion is preferable to seg...
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作者：Boyer, M. Martin; D'Astous, Philippe; Michaud, Pierre-Carl
作者单位：Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; Universite de Montreal; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In this study, we conduct a stated-choice experiment to analyze the decision to contribute to either a front- or back-loaded tax-preferred retirement savings account. Our experimental design includes a randomized financial education intervention that provides information on the tax implications of both types of account. Respondents who were exposed to the intervention have greater knowledge of these accounts and make contribution choices that increase their after-tax income. Using a well-defin...
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作者：Cook, C. Justin; Shah, Manisha
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Merced; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper explores the aggregate economic effects from India's National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS), which provides up to 100 days of labor to rural laborers at the mandated minimum wage. We examine the within-district change to nighttime lights, a proxy for economic development, and banking deposits using the staggered program rollout for identification. We find consistent and robust evidence that NREGS increased aggregate economic output by 1% to 2% per capita measured by nigh...
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作者：Coelli, Federica; Moxnes, Andreas; Ulltveit-Moe, Karen Helene
作者单位：University of Zurich; University of Oslo; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：This paper estimates the effect on innovation of increased market access facilitated by trade liberalization. We use a novel empirical design that exploits tariff cuts during the 1990s, along with detailed data on innovation among firms from 65 countries. Our results reveal a large effect of tariff cuts on innovation as measured by patent data, suggesting that multilateral liberalization has promoted innovation and growth. These effects are not driven by the deterioration of innovation quality...
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作者：Barrette, Eric; Gowrisankaran, Gautam; Town, Robert
作者单位：Medtronic; Columbia University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：While economic theories indicate that market power by downstream firms can potentially counteract market power upstream, antitrust policy is opaque as to whether to incorporate countervailing market power in merger analyses. We use detailed national claims data from the health care sector to evaluate whether countervailing insurer power does indeed limit hospitals' exercise of market power. We estimate willingness-to-pay models to evaluate hospital market power across analysis areas. We find t...
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作者：Brandt, Loren; Jiang, Feitao; Luo, Yao; Su, Yingjun
作者单位：University of Toronto; Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Jinan University
摘要：We study productivity differences in vertically integrated steel facilities using equipment-level information on inputs and output for each of the main stages in the value chain. We obtain stage-level productivity estimates by estimating a multistage production system and then integrate them into estimates for integrated facilities. At this level, we do not find statistically significant differences in productivity by ownership. This conceals important differences upstream and downstream in th...
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作者：Jorda, Oscar; Singh, Sanjay R.; Taylor, Alan M.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Davis; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：What are the medium- to long-term effects of pandemics? Do they differ from other economic disasters? We study major pandemics using rates of return on assets stretching back to the fourteenth century. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of pandemics persist for decades, with rates of return substantially depressed. The responses are in stark contrast to what happens after wars. Our findings also accord with wage and output responses, using more limited data, and are consistent with the ne...
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作者：Bleichrodt, Han; van Bruggen, Paul
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Universitat d'Alacant; Tilburg University
摘要：Higher-order risk preferences are important determinants of economic behavior. We apply insights from behavioral economics: we measure higher-order risk preferences for pure gains and losses. We find a reflection effect not only for second-order risk preferences, as did Kahneman and Tversky (1979). but also for higher-order risk preferences: we find risk aversion, prudence and intemperance for gains and much more risk-loving preferences, imprudence and temperance for losses. These findings are...
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作者：Slemrod, Joel; Rehman, Obeid Ur; Waseem, Mazhar
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Toronto Metropolitan University; University of Manchester
摘要：We examine two Pakistani programs to see if the public disclosure of tax information and social recognition of top taxpayers promotes tax compliance. Pakistan began revealing income tax paid by all taxpayers in 2012. Simultaneously, another program began recognizing and rewarding the top 100 tax- paying corporations, partnerships, self-employed individuals, and wage earners. We find that the public disclosure caused an increase of 9 log points and the social recognition program 17 log points i...
