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作者：Jiang, Liang; Linton, Oliver B.; Tang, Haihan; Zhang, Yichong
作者单位：Fudan University; University of Cambridge; Singapore Management University
摘要：We investigate how to improve efficiency using regression adjustments with covariates in covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs) with imperfect subject compliance. Our regression-adjusted estimators, which are based on the doubly robust moment for local average treatment effects, are consistent and asymptotically normal even with heterogeneous probabilities of assignment and misspecified regression adjustments. We propose an optimal but potentially misspecified linear adjustment and its furth...
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作者：McDevitt, Ryan C.; Sojourner, Aaron
作者单位：Duke University; W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
摘要：We use a nonlinear reduction in a bank's check-cashing fees and variation in regulated check-clearing times to identify the elasticity of demand for cashing checks rather than depositing them. We find that an extra day of check-clearing time makes account holders 65.5% more likely to cash a check than deposit it, which implies they are willing to pay $11.17 per day for faster access to their funds-an effective annualized discount rate of 11,054% for the average check. We use this elasticity to...
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作者：Bartik, Alexander W.; Nelson, Scott T.
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; University of Chicago
摘要：We study the removal of information from a market, such as a job-applicant screening tool. We characterize how removal harms groups with relative advantage in that information: typically those for whom the banned information is most precise relative to alternative signals. We illustrate this using recent bans on employers' use of credit report data. Bans decrease job-finding rates for Black job-seekers by 3 percentage points and increase involuntary separations for Black new hires by 4 percent...
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作者：Caliendo, Marco; Kunn, Steffen; Mahlstedt, Robert
作者单位：University of Potsdam; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Maastricht University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Copenhagen
摘要：We investigate the causal effects of financial incentives supporting geographical mobility among unemployed workers on their job search behavior and labor market outcomes. Exploiting regional variation in the promotion of mobility programs along administrative borders of German employment agency districts, we show that promoting mobility-as intended-causes job seekers to increase their search radius, apply for, and accept distant jobs. At the same time, local job search is reduced with adverse...
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作者：Madeira, Carlos; Madeira, Joao; Monteiro, Paulo Santos
作者单位：Central Bank of Chile; Instituto Universitario de Lisboa; Instituto Universitario de Lisboa; University of York - UK
摘要：We investigate how dissent in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is affected by structural macroeconomic shocks obtained using a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. We find that dissent is less (more) frequent when demand (supply) shocks are the predominant source of inflation fluctuations. In addition, supply shocks are found to raise private sector forecasting uncertainty about the path of interest rates. Since supply shocks impose a tradeoff between inflation an...
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作者：Coury, Michael
作者单位：State University of New York (SUNY) System; University at Buffalo, SUNY
摘要：How does exposure to risk shape individual preferences foran expanded state? I examine this question in the context of climatechange-related risk. Using variation in California wildfire activity, I showneighborhoods experiencing large fires increase support by 0.8 percentagepoints for ballot initiatives which expand the size of government and by2.4 percentage points for ballot initiatives endorsed by pro-environmentinterest groups. The effect is stronger in Republican areas and is notdriven by...
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作者：Lang, Kevin; Leong, Kaiwen; Li, Huailu; Xu, Haibo
作者单位：Boston University; Griffith University; Fudan University; National University of Singapore; University of Nottingham Ningbo China
摘要：Using over 11,000 unlicensed loans to over 1,000 borrowers inSingapore, we provide basic information about an understudied market:illegal moneylending. Borrowers and lenders interact frequently and relyprimarily on relational contracts to enforce their agreements. Borrowershave high discount rates, often have gambling and/or substance abuse prob-lems, and often repay late. While lenders sometimes resort to nonfinancialpunishments, the primary cost of late repayment is the compounding of avery ...
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作者：Angrist, Noam; Winseck, Kevin; Patrinos, Harry Anthony; Zivin, Joshua Graff
作者单位：University of Oxford; University of Arkansas System; University of Arkansas Fayetteville; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：Addressing climate change requires individual behavior change and voter support for pro-climate policies, yet surprisingly little is known about how to achieve these outcomes. In this paper, we estimate causal effects of additional education on pro-climate outcomes using new compulsory schooling law data across 20 European countries. We analyze effects on pro-climate beliefs and behaviors, as well as novel data on policy preferences and voting for green parties. Results show that a year of edu...
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作者：Candian, Giacomo; De Leo, Pierre
作者单位：Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：Using survey data, we document that predictable exchange rate forecast errors are responsible for the uncovered interest parity (UIP) puzzle and its reversal at longer horizons. We develop a general-equilibrium model based on shock misperception and overextrapolative beliefs that reconciles these and other major exchange rate puzzles. These beliefs distortions generate both under- and over-reaction of expectations that account for the predictability of forecast errors about interest rates, exc...
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作者：Ma, Xiao; Muendler, Marc-Andreas; Nakab, Alejandro
作者单位：Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School (PKU Shenzhen); Peking University; University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
摘要：Export activity shapes workers' experience-wage profiles. Using employer-employee and customs data for Brazilian manufacturing, we document that workers' experience-wage profiles are steeper at exporters than at non-exporters and, among exporters, steeper at exporters shipping to high-income destinations. We develop and quantify a model featuring worker-firm wage bargaining, export-market entry by multi-worker firms, and human capital accumulation by workers to interpret the data. Human capita...
