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作者：Ferreira, Leonardo N.; Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia; Ricco, Giovanni
作者单位：Central Bank of Brazil; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; University of Warwick
摘要：We propose a Bayesian approach to Local Projections (LPs) that optimally addresses the empirical bias-variance trade-off intrinsic in the choice between direct and iterative methods. Bayesian Local Projections (BLPs) regularize LP regressions via informative priors and estimate impulse response functions that capture the properties of the data more accurately than iterative VARs. BLPs preserve the flexibility of LPs while retaining a degree of estimation uncertainty comparable to Bayesian VARs...
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作者：Batista, Catia; Vicente, Pedro C.
作者单位：Universidade Nova de Lisboa; Universidade Nova de Lisboa
摘要：Rural areas in sub-Saharan Africa are typically underserved by financial services. Mobile money brings a substantial reduction in the transaction costs of remittances. We follow the introduction of mobile money for the first time in rural villages of Mozambique using a randomized field experiment. We find that mobile money increased migration out of these villages, where we observe lower agricultural activity and investment. At the same time, remittances received and welfare of rural household...
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作者：Currie, Janet; Zhang, Jonathan
作者单位：Princeton University; Duke University; US Department of Veterans Affairs; Veterans Health Administration (VHA)
摘要：We use data from the Veterans Administration to examine the efficacy of primary care providers (PCPs). Leveraging quasi-random assignment of veterans to PCPs, we measure effectiveness using ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC) and hospitalizations/emergency department (ED) visits for mental health or circulatory conditions. PCPs' variation along these dimensions predicts future outcomes. For example, a 1 standard deviation improvement in mental health effectiveness reduces patient risk ...
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作者：Ahn, Tom; Cunha, Jesse M.; Veith, Patrick
作者单位：United States Department of Defense; United States Navy; Naval Postgraduate School
摘要：We study the influence of workplace peers on ahigh-stakes, irreversible retirement plan choice. Midcareer U.S. military personnel choose between higher future pension payouts or an immediate bonus plus lower future payouts. With peers defined as those who have locked in their choices and personnel assignment rules ensuring that peer groups are exogenously formed, we capture the causal impact of peers. Greater peer take-up of the bonus, which is difficult to compare to the alternative plan but ...
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作者：Brooks, Leah; Rose, Jonathan; Veuger, Stan
作者单位：George Washington University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：We study the aftermath of the 1968 Washington, D.C. civil disturbance to illuminate the mechanisms that drive urban redevelopment in the presence of low demand and racial tension. Using a within-block identification strategy, we show that destruction caused lots to remain vacant for the next thirty years and only recently converge in terms of structure value. The city acted to preclude for-profit land owners from leaving land vacant until demand conditions improved by purchasing nearly half of...
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作者：Mu, Yingfei; Rubin, Edward; Zou, Eric Yongchen
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; University of Oregon; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Regulators often rely on regulated entities to self-monitor compliance, creating strategic incentives for endogenous monitoring. This paper builds a framework to detect whether local governments skip air pollution monitoring when they expect air quality to deteriorate. The core of our method tests whether the timing of monitor shutdowns coincides with the counties' air quality alerts-public advisories based on local governments' own pollution forecasts. Applying the method to a monitor in Jers...
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作者：Genesove, David; Hansen, James
作者单位：Hebrew University of Jerusalem; University of Melbourne
摘要：We shed light on housing price inertia by investigating how the home-sale mechanism affects housing price dynamics. Using Australian data, we find that auction prices forecast better and display less momentum than negotiated prices. These findings are robust to alternative price measurements and different sample selection corrections. Motivated by microtheory that predicts different weights for buyer and seller values in auction and negotiated prices, we decompose housing prices into two diffu...
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作者：Landaud, Fanny; Maurin, Eric; Willage, Barton; Willen, Alexander
作者单位：Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; ENSAE Paris; Paris School of Economics; University of Colorado System; Children's Hospital Colorado; University of Colorado Anschutz; University of Colorado Denver; National Bureau of Economic Research; Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
摘要：paper provides novel evidence on the causal effect of high school Grade Point Average (GPA) on the human capital development and labor market trajectory of individuals. Causal identification is achieved by exploiting a unique feature of the Norwegian education system that produces exogenous variation in GPA among high school students. We find little effect on the number of completed years of higher education, but significant effects on the number and quality of higher education programs availa...
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作者：DeStefano, Timothy; Kneller, Richard; Timmis, Jonathan
作者单位：Georgetown University; University of Nottingham; The World Bank
摘要：Cloud computing has shifted how firms access IT away from investment in fixed capital to pay-on-demand services that facilitate remote and simultaneous use. Using firm-level data, we examine the impact of cloud adoption on firm performance and organizational geography with an IV approach that exploits cross-section and time-series variation in fiber broadband speeds as instruments. Cloud leads younger firms to increase revenue, employment, and productivity, whereas incumbent firms experience n...
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作者：Rockenbach, Bettina; Tonke, Sebastian; Weiss, Arne R.
作者单位：University of Cologne; Max Planck Society; Universitat d'Alacant; University of Mannheim; University of Bern
摘要：In a field experiment among 9,823 customers of the Namibian water utility, we implement interventions to reduce nonpayments. The interventions are based on diagnostic surveys to identify key obstacles to payments. They address informational frictions and apply psychological commitment techniques to narrow the gap between customers' willingness to pay and actual payments. Initially, payments increase by 29% to 55%, making the interventions highly cost-effective. Removing informational frictions...
