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作者：Gabriel, Ricardo Duque; Klein, Mathias; Pessoa, Ana Sofia
作者单位：University of Bonn; National Bureau of Economic Research; Sveriges Riksbank
摘要：a novel regional database covering over 200 elections in several European countries, this article provides new empirical evidence on the political consequences of fiscal consolidations. To identify exogenous reductions in regional public spending, we use a Bartik-type instrument that combines regional sensitivities to changes in national government expenditures with narrative national consolidation episodes. Fiscal consolidations lead to a significant increase in extreme parties' vote share, l...
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作者：Martin, Julien; Mejean, Isabelle; Parenti, Mathieu
作者单位：University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); Paris School of Economics; INRAE; Universite Libre de Bruxelles; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We study how stickiness in business relationships influences the trade impact of aggregate uncertainty. To begin, we construct a product-level index of relationship stickiness using firm-to-firm relationship duration data. We then demonstrate how relationship stickiness shapes trade dynamics in response to uncertainty shocks. We find that episodes of uncertainty lead to a decline in the overall establishment of new business relationships, with the impact varying depending on the level of stick...
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作者：Davis, Lucas W.
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作者：Park, Sangyoon; Yuan, Zhaoneng; Zhang, Hongsong
作者单位：University of Hong Kong
摘要：This paper examines the impacts of technology training and buyer-supplier relationship on technology adoption and quality upgrading. We randomly varied subjects of each training group across farmer-exporter clusters-farmers, exporters, both, or none-and provided training on Good Agricultural Practices (GAP). We find that training farmers enhances technology adoption and quality upgrading. Yet, the effects are much stronger when farmers and exporters are trained together. We document a plausibl...
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作者：Chen, Cuicui
作者单位：State University of New York (SUNY) System; University at Albany, SUNY
摘要：I propose a new method of identifying firms' subjective beliefs in dynamic models. In settings where actions are continuous and substitutable in contributing to an endogenous state, I show how beliefs about exogenous state transitions can be separately identified from static payoffs. Applying this method to identifying beliefs about future SO2 allowance prices in the U.S. Acid Rain Program, I find that electric utilities underestimate the movements in the allowance price, leading to compliance...
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作者：Bryan, Kevin A.; Guzman, Jorge
作者单位：University of Toronto; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We track the movement of high-potential startups using cross-state business registrations and estimate the utility of cities to moving startups using a revealed preference approach. 6.6% of these startups move across state borders during their first five years. Startup hubs like Silicon Valley and Boston tend to lose startups to other cities. Our findings show that startups prefer traditional hubs when they move soon after being founded, but later prefer cities with lower taxes. This pattern i...
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作者：Solomon, Adam
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：This paper studies imperfectly perceived private information in insurance markets when contracts endogenously respond. Equilibrium contracts, pooling, and welfare depend on the joint distribution of risk and misperception. In the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), I show that misperceptions typically covary with (medical, long-term care, disability, and mortality) risk type: high types underperceive their risk and low types overperceive. I develop a general model and algorithm to estimate the ...
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作者：Antler, Yair; Arad, Ayala
作者单位：Tel Aviv University
摘要：We experimentally examine how individuals commit to a cutoff stopping rule when facing a sequence of independent lotteries. We identify two main behavior patterns: (a) a small share of participants consistently choose stopping rules whose gain bound (i.e., the accumulated gain at which the sequence stops) is larger than the loss bound, and (b) a larger share of participants consistently choose rules whose loss bound is larger than the gain bound. We introduce a procedural choice model that acc...
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作者：Khanna, Gaurav; Shih, Kevin; Weinberger, Ariel; Xu, Mingzhi; Yu, Miaojie
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; City University of New York (CUNY) System; Queens College NY (CUNY); George Washington University; Peking University; Liaoning University
摘要：We highlight a lesser-known consequence of China's integration into the world economy: the rise of services trade. We demonstrate how the United States' trade deficit in goods cycles back as a surplus in U.S. exports of education services. Focusing on China's accession to the World Trade Organization, we show that Chinese cities more exposed to trade liberalization sent more students to U.S. universities. Growth in housing income and wealth allowed Chinese families to afford U.S. tuition, and ...
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作者：Schneider, Stephan A.; Kunze, Sven
作者单位：Stockholm University; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Fraunhofer Gesellschaft; Fraunhofer Germany; Fraunhofer Systems & Innovation Research
摘要：Allocations decisions are vulnerable to political influence, but it is unclear in which situations politicians use their discretionary power in a partisan manner. We analyze the allocation of presidential disaster declarations in the United States, exploiting the spatiotemporal randomness of all hurricane strikes from 1965 to 2018 along with changes in political alignment. We show that decisions are unbiased when disasters are either very strong or weak. Only after medium-intensity hurricanes ...
