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作者：Hager, Anselm; Hensel, Lukas; Roth, Christopher; Stegmann, Andreas
作者单位：Humboldt University of Berlin; Peking University; Leibniz Association; University of Cologne; Max Planck Society; Ifo Institut; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Warwick
摘要：We conduct a natural field experiment with a major European party to test whether giving party supporters more voice increases their engagement in the party's electoral campaign. In the experiment, the party asked a random subset of supporters for their opinions on the importance of different policy areas. Giving supporters opportunities to voice their opinions increases their engagement in the campaign as measured using behavioral data from the party's smartphone application. Survey data reve...
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作者：Manara, Martina; Regan, Tanner
作者单位：George Washington University
摘要：Information on willingness-to-pay is key for public pricing and allocation of services but not easily collected. Studying land titles in Dar-es-Salaam, we ask whether local leaders know and will reveal plot owners' willingness-to-pay. We randomly assign leaders to predict under different settings then elicit owners' actual willingness-to-pay. Demand is substantial but below exorbitant fees. Leaders can predict the aggregate demand curve and distinguish variation across owners. Predictions wors...
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作者：Pathak, Parag A.; Rees-Jones, Alex; Sonmez, Tayfun
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Pennsylvania; Boston College
摘要：The H-1B Visa Reform Act of 2004 dictates an annual allocation of 85,000 visas with 20,000 reserved for advanced-degree applicants. We represent the main requirements of this legislation as formal axioms and characterize visa allocation rules consistent with the axioms. Despite the precise number reserved, we show that the range of implementations satisfying these axioms can change the allocation of advanced-degree visas by as much as 14,000 in an average year. Of all rules satisfying these ax...
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作者：Choi, Joonkyu; Goldschlag, Nathan; Haltiwanger, John; Kim, J. Daniel
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We show that early joiners-nonfounder employees in the first year of a startup-play a critical role in shaping firm performance. We use administrative employer-employee matched data on U.S. startups and utilize premature death as a natural experiment that exogenously separates talent from startups. We find that losing an early joiner has large negative effects on employment and revenues that persist for at least ten years. In contrast, losing a later joiner yields only a small and temporary de...
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作者：Li, Hongbin; Qiu, Xinyao
作者单位：Stanford University; University of Hong Kong
摘要：Using administrative data on the Chinese National College Entrance Examination, we study how left-digit bias affects college applications. We find strong discontinuities in students' admission outcomes at ten-point thresholds. Students with scores just below multiples of 10 make more conservative college application choices that place them into less selective colleges and majors. In contrast, students who score at or just above multiples of 10 aim at and achieve higher but are at greater risk ...
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作者：Miyamoto, Wataru; Nguyen, Thuy Lan; Oh, Hyunseung
作者单位：University of Hong Kong; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Santa Clara University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We uncover the major drivers of macro aggregates and the real exchange rate at business cycle frequencies in Group of Seven countries. The estimated drivers of key macro variables resemble each other and account for a modest fraction of the real exchange rate variances. Dominant drivers of the real exchange rate are orthogonal to the main drivers of business cycles, generate a significant deviation of the uncovered interest parity condition, and lead to small movements in net exports. We use t...
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作者：Muris, Chris; Raposo, Pedro; Vandoros, Sotiris
作者单位：McMaster University; Universidade Catolica Portuguesa; University of London; University College London; Harvard University
摘要：We study a fixed- T panel data logit model for ordered outcomes that accommodates fixed effects and state dependence. We provide identification results for the autoregressive parameter, regression coefficients, and the threshold parameters in this model. Our results require only four observations on the outcome variable. We provide conditions under which a composite conditional maximum likelihood estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. We use our estimator to explore the determinant...
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作者：Mion, Giordano; Opromolla, Luca David; Sforza, Alessandro
作者单位：ESSEC Business School; University of Nottingham; North Carolina State University; Banco de Portugal; University of Bologna
摘要：We investigate how managers help firms grow by entering a new export market. We conduct an event study on the decision to export to Angola using data on Portuguese firms and workers. We evaluate the impact of the presence of managers with experience in exporting to the Angolan market on a firm's entry success in the aftermath of an exogenous shock: the sudden end of the Angolan civil war. We show that the presence of managers doubles the probability of a firm entering the market. We do not fin...
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作者：Ambuehl, Sandro; Ockenfels, Axel; Stewart, Colin
作者单位：University of Zurich; University of Cologne; Max Planck Society; University of Toronto
摘要：Participation payments are used in many transactions about which people know little but can learn more: incentives for medical trial participation, signing bonuses for job applicants, or price rebates on consumer durables. Who opts into the transaction when given such incentives? We theoretically and experimentally identify a composition effect whereby incentives disproportionately increase participation among those for whom learning is harder. Moreover, these individuals use less information ...
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作者：Baron, E. Jason; Hyman, Joshua; Vasquez, Brittany
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Amherst College; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：This paper asks whether increasing public school funding can be an effective long-run crime-prevention strategy in the United States. Specifically, we examine the effect of increases in funding early in children's lives on the likelihood that they are arrested as adults. We exploit quasi-experimental variation in public school funding, leveraging two natural experiments in Michigan and a novel administrative data set linking the universe of Michigan public school students to adult criminal jus...
