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作者：Garratt, Anthony; Lee, Kevin; Mise, Emi; Shields, Kalvinder
作者单位：University of Melbourne; University of London; Birkbeck University London; University of Leicester
摘要：Methods are described for the appropriate use of data obtained and analysed in real time to represent the output gap. The methods employ cointegrating VAR techniques to model real-time measures and realizations of output series jointly. The model is used to mitigate the impact of data revisions; to generate appropriate forecasts that can deliver economically meaningful output trends and that can take into account the end-of-sample problems encountered in measuring these trends; and to calculat...
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作者：Kerr, William R.
作者单位：Harvard University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：This study explores the role of U.S. ethnic scientific and entrepreneurial communities for international technology transfer to their home countries. U.S. ethnic researchers are quantified through an ethnic-name database and individual patent records. International patent citations confirm knowledge diffuses through ethnic networks, and manufacturing output in foreign countries increases with an elasticity of 0.1-0.3 to stronger scientific integration with the U.S. frontier. Specifications exp...
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作者：Evans, Paul; Wang, Xiaojun
作者单位：University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; University of Hawaii System
摘要：This paper investigates the relationship between nominal interest rates and prices using nearly two centuries of data from ten industrial countries. Both a positive relationship between interest rates and price levels (that is, a positive Gibson effect) and a negative relationship between interest rates and subsequent price changes (that is, a negative Fama-Fisher effect) prevailed until World War I. We propose a simple explanation wherein this doubly paradoxical juxtaposition of effects arise...
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作者：Grabowski, David C.; Gruber, Jonathan; Angelelli, Joseph J.
作者单位：Harvard University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：A long-standing assumption among economists is that nursing home quality is common across Medicaid and private-pay patients within a shared facility. However, there has been only limited empirical work addressing this issue. Using a unique individual-level panel of residents of nursing homes from seven states, we exploit both within-facility and within-person variation in payer source and quality to examine this issue. We also test the robustness of these results across states with different M...
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作者：Chen, Stacey H.
作者单位：State University of New York (SUNY) System; University at Albany, SUNY
摘要：Identification of potential wage distributions by education is important to the study of the causal links between education, inequality, and uncertainty. Potential wage inequality within an educational group (that is, the variance in wages if all workers had the same education) exceeds the observed statistics because self-selected education truncates wage distributions. Decomposing potential wage inequality into heterogeneity (known to the agent making the educational choice) and uncertainty (...
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作者：Levitt, Steven D.
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：Over the past thirty years, the use of child safety seats in motor vehicles has increased dramatically. There is, however, relatively little empirical evidence regarding the efficacy of child safety seats relative to the much cheaper alternative of traditional seat belts. Using data on all fatal crashes in the United States from 1975 to 2003, 1 find that child safety seats, in actual practice, do not provide any discernible improvement over adult lap and shoulder belts in reducing fatalities a...
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作者：Levitt, Steven D.; Syverson, Chad
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
摘要：Agents are often better informed than the clients who hire them and may exploit this informational advantage. Real estate agents have an incentive to convince clients to sell their houses too cheaply and too quickly. We test these predictions by comparing home sales in which real estate agents are hired to when an agent sells his own home. Consistent with the theory, we find homes owned by real estate agents sell for 3.7% more than other houses and stay on the market 9.5 days longer, controlli...
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作者：Kilian, Lutz
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：The paper proposes a new measure of exogenous oil supply shocks. The timing, the magnitude, and the sign of this measure may differ greatly from current state-of-the-art estimates. It is shown that only a small fraction of the observed oil price increases during oil crisis periods can be attributed to exogenous oil production disruptions. Exogenous oil supply shocks cause a sharp drop of U.S. real GDP growth after five quarters rather than an immediate and sustained reduction in economic growt...
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作者：McIntosh, Craig
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：This paper demonstrates a method for estimating treatment effects in spatial tests, utilizing a second control group to measure unexplained spatial phenomena. The technique is implemented on two innovations in Ugandan microfinance, and we measure the ways in which concurrent shocks such as an Ebola outbreak and a contentious presidential election altered outcomes differentially across regions. By correcting. for this spatial heterogeneity, we measure the impact of the policies; a program that ...
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作者：Cameron, A. Colin; Gelbach, Jonah B.; Miller, Douglas L.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; University of Arizona
摘要：Researchers have increasingly realized the need to account for within-group dependence in estimating standard errors of regression parameter estimates. The usual solution is to calculate cluster-robust standard errors that permit heteroskedasticity and within-cluster error correlation. but presume that the number of clusters is large. Standard asymptotic tests can over-reject, however, with few (five to thirty) clusters. We investigate inference using cluster bootstrap-t procedures that provid...
