Exogenous oil supply shocks: How big are they and how much do they matter for the US economy?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kilian, Lutz
• 署名单位: University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest.90.2.216
• 发表日期: 2008-05
• 页码: 216-240
• 关键词: macroeconomy; prices

摘要

The paper proposes a new measure of exogenous oil supply shocks. The timing, the magnitude, and the sign of this measure may differ greatly from current state-of-the-art estimates. It is shown that only a small fraction of the observed oil price increases during oil crisis periods can be attributed to exogenous oil production disruptions. Exogenous oil supply shocks cause a sharp drop of U.S. real GDP growth after five quarters rather than an immediate and sustained reduction in economic growth and a spike in CPI inflation after three quarters. Overall, exogenous oil supply shocks made remarkably little difference for the evolution of the U.S. economy since the 1970s, although they did matter for some historical episodes.