Review of Economics and Statistics

最新文章

• MEASURING THE NAIRU WITH REDUCED UNCERTAINTY: A MULTIPLE-INDICATOR COMMON-CYCLE APPROACH AI翻译
  作者：Basistha, Arabinda; Startz, Richard
  作者单位：West Virginia University; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
  摘要：Standard estimates of the NAIRU or natural rate of unemployment are subject to considerable uncertainty. We show in this paper that using multiple indicators to extract an estimated NAIRU cuts in half uncertainty as measured by variance and gives a 33% reduction in the confidence band. The inclusion of an Okun's Law relation is particularly valuable. The essential notion is the existence of a common cyclical force driving the macroeconomic variables. Model comparisons based on the use of Bayes...
• CORPORATE DOLLAR DEBT AND DEPRECIATIONS: MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING? AI翻译
  作者：Bleakley, Hoyt; Cowan, Kevin
  作者单位：University of Chicago; Central Bank of Chile
  摘要：Emerging-markets firms often carry foreign-currency debt on their balance sheets. Following a depreciation, the expanding peso value of dollar liabilities could, via a net-worth effect, offset the expansionary competitiveness effect. To assess which effect dominates, we use accounting data (including the currency composition of liabilities) for 450+ nonfinancial firms in five Latin American countries in the 1990s. We find that firms holding more dollar debt do not invest less than their pesoin...
• The anatomy of start-stop growth AI翻译
  作者：Jones, Benjamin F.; Olken, Benjamin A.
  作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University
  摘要：This paper investigates the remarkable extremes of growth experiences within countries and the changes that occur across growth transitions. We find two main results. First, virtually all but the very richest countries experience both growth miracles and failures over substantial periods. Second, growth accelerations and collapses are asymmetric phenomena. Collapses typically feature reduced investment amidst increasing price instability, whereas growth takeoffs are primarily associated with l...
• Have absolute price levels converged for developed economies? The evidence since 1870 AI翻译
  作者：Chen, Lein-Lein; Choi, Seungmook; Devereux, John
  作者单位：City University of New York (CUNY) System; Queens College NY (CUNY); Nevada System of Higher Education (NSHE); University of Nevada Reno; Nevada System of Higher Education (NSHE); University of Nevada Reno
  摘要：We compare price level and income convergence since 1870 for eleven developed economies using implicit price deflators derived from the GDP data of Maddison (1995, 2001, 2003). We find that sigma and beta convergence for prices occurs later and to,a lesser extent than income. Price levels converge after 1950 while income convergence begins in the 1880s. We find no evidence for stochastic price convergence or for club price convergence.
• How does the border affect productivity? Evidence from American and Canadian manufacturing industries AI翻译
  作者：Vigfusson, Robert
  摘要：This study reports on how much productivity fluctuations are industry specific versus country specific. For the manufacturing industries in Canada and the United States, the correlation between cross-border pairings of the same industry are found to be more often highly correlated than previously thought. Furthermore, the study confirms earlier findings that the similarity of input use can help describe the comovement of productivity fluctuations across industries.
• Education, growth, and income inequality AI翻译
  作者：Teulings, Coen; van Rens, Thijs
  作者单位：CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy; University of Amsterdam; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Pompeu Fabra University
  摘要：Estimates of the effect of education on GDP (the social return) have been hard to reconcile with micro evidence on the private return to schooling. We present a simple explanation combining two ideas: imperfect substitution and endogenous skill-biased technological progress and use cross-country panel data on inequality and GDP to test these ideas. A one-year increase in the level of education reduces the private return by 2 percentage points, consistent with Katz-Murphy's (1992) elasticity of...
• Arbitrarily normalized coefficients, information sets, and false reports of biases in binary outcome models AI翻译
  作者：Mroz, Thomas A.; Zayats, Yaraslau V.
  作者单位：Clemson University
  摘要：Empirical researchers sometimes misinterpret how additional regressors, heterogeneity corrections, and multilevel factors impact the interpretation of the estimated parameters in binary outcome models such as logit and probit. This can result in incorrect inferences about the importance of incorporating such features in these nonlinear statistical models. Some reports of biases in binary outcome models appear related to the arbitrary variance normalization required in binary outcome models. A ...
• REAL EXCHANGE RATE AND INTERNATIONAL RESERVES IN AN ERA OF GROWING FINANCIAL AND TRADE INTEGRATION AI翻译
  作者：Aizenman, Joshua; Riera-Crichton, Daniel
  作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：This paper evaluates the impact of international reserves, terms-of-trade shocks, and capital flows on the real exchange rate (REER). We observe that international reserves cushion the impact of terms-of-trade shocks on PEER, and that this effect is important for developing but not for industrial countries. This buffer effect is especially significant for Asian countries, and for countries exporting natural resources. Financial depth reduces the buffer role of international reserves in develop...
• Why doesn't capital flow from rich to poor countries? An empirical investigation AI翻译
  作者：Alfaro, Laura; Kalemh-Ozcan, Sebnem; Volosovych, Vadym
  作者单位：Harvard University; University of Houston System; University of Houston; National Bureau of Economic Research; State University System of Florida; Florida Atlantic University
  摘要：We examine the empirical role of different explanations for the lack of capital flows from rich to poor countries-the Lucas Paradox. The theoretical explanations include cross-country differences in fundamentals affecting productivity, and capital market imperfections. We show that during 1970-2000, low institutional quality is the leading explanation. Improving Peru's institutional quality to Australia's level implies a quadrupling of foreign investment. Recent studies emphasize the role of i...
• Using state administrative data to measure program performance AI翻译
  作者：Mueser, Peter R.; Troske, Kenneth R.; Gorislavsky, Alexey
  作者单位：University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Kentucky
  摘要：We use administrative data from Missouri to examine the sensitivity of earnings impact estimates for a job training program based on alternative nonexperimental methods. We consider regression adjustment, Mahalanobis distance matching, and various methods using propensity-score matching, examining both cross-sectional estimates and difference-in-difference estimates. Specification tests suggest that the difference-in-difference estimator may provide a better measure of program impact. We find ...