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作者：Bick, Alexander; Fuchs-Schuendeln, Nicola; Lagakos, David; Tsujiyama, Hitoshi
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Goethe University Frankfurt; Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper studies how structural change in labor supply along the development spectrum shapes cross-country differences in hours worked. We emphasize two main forces: sec-toral reallocation from self-employment to wage work, and declining fixed costs of wage work. We show that these forces are crucial for understanding how the extensive margin (the employment rate) and intensive margin (hours per worker) of aggregate hours worked vary with income per capita. To do so we build and estimate a q...
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作者：Lenel, Moritz
作者单位：Princeton University
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作者：Augustin, Patrick; Sokolovski, Valeri; Subrahmanyam, Marti G.; Tomio, Davide
作者单位：McGill University; McGill University; Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; New York University; University of Virginia
摘要：Price fluctuations of sovereign default insurance are dominated by common risks. In con-trast, fluctuations in their quantities are primarily explained by country-specific factors. Using net positions in sovereign default insurance contracts for 60 countries between 2008 and 2015, we show that a country's debt and size explain 75% of cross-country differ-ences in net insured interest. We develop an economic framework showing that high co -movement in prices and low co-movement in quantities ca...
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作者：Gayle, George-Levi; Golan, Limor; Soytas, Mehmet A.
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals; King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals
摘要：We use a dynastic model of household behavior to estimate and decompose the correlations in earnings across generations. The estimated model can explain 75% to 80% of the observed correlation in lifetime earnings between fathers and sons, mothers and daughters, and families across generations. We find that human-capital accumulation in the labor market, the nonlinear return to part-versus full-time work, and the return to parental time investment in children are the main forces driving the int...
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作者：Molloy, Raven
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
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作者：Sposi, Michael
作者单位：Southern Methodist University
摘要：The age distribution influences capital flows through aggregate saving and labor supply. To quantify this, I build a dynamic model featuring overlapping generations and international trade among 28 countries since 1970. The equilibrium is replicated by a model with a representative household in each country that experiences an endogenous discount factor, which summarizes the co-evolution of demographics and relevant prices, affording computation of the exact transition. On average, a one-year ...
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作者：Dumav, Martin; Fuchs, William; Lee, Jangwoo
作者单位：Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Chinese University of Hong Kong
摘要：We show theoretically that, in the presence of persistent productivity shocks, the reliance on self-enforcing contracts due to limited legal enforcement may provide a possible rationale why countries with the worse rule of law might exhibit: (i) higher aggregate TFP volatilities, (ii) larger dispersion of firm-level productivity, and (iii) greater wage inequality. We also provide suggestive empirical evidence consistent with the model's aggregate implications. Finally, we relate the model's fi...
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作者：Li, Erica X. N.; Zha, Tao; Zhang, Ji; Zhou, Hao
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Emory University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Tsinghua University; Southern University of Science & Technology
摘要：Switching between monetary and fiscal regimes is incorporated in a general-equilibrium model to explain three stylized facts: (1) a positive correlation of stock and bond returns in 1971-2001 and a negative correlation after 2001, (2) a negative correlation of consumption and inflation in 1971-2001 and a positive correlation after 2001, and (3) the coexistence of a positive bond risk premium and a negative correlation of stock and bond returns. While the technology shock drives the positive st...
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作者：Tang, Haozhou; Zhang, Donghai
作者单位：Dongbei University of Finance & Economics; University of Bonn
摘要：The transmission channel of asset bubbles is studied in a heterogeneous firm model with endogenous entry and exit. We highlight the effects of asset bubbles along the extensive margin: the aggregate bubble can boost real economic activities by affecting firms' en-try and exit decisions. Moreover, the model predicts the selection effect of bubbles: bub-bly firms-firms with asset bubbles-are less productive than bubble-less firms. Finally, we provide empirical evidence that supports bubbles' eff...
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作者：Bottone, Marco; Tagliabracci, Alex; Zevi, Giordano
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：Using a unique experiment on a rich survey of Italian firms, we study how the awareness of the formulation of the ECB's inflation aim shapes their inflation expectations. By means of a randomized controlled trial we show that, in years of low inflation, such awareness raises firms' inflation expectations by about 25 basis points at all time horizons, shifting them closer to the ECB's target. We also document that when there is room for interpretation of an official inflation objective, as in t...
