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作者：Capponi, Agostino; Corell, Felix; Stiglitz, Joseph E.
作者单位：Columbia University; European University Institute
摘要：Banks usually hold large amounts of domestic debt which makes them vulnerable to their own sovereign's default risk. At the same time, governments often resort to costly bailouts when their banking sector is in trouble. We investigate how the network structure and the distribution of sovereign debt ownership within the banking sector jointly affect the optimal bailout policy under this doom loop. We argue that rescuing banks with high domestic sovereign exposure is optimal if these banks are s...
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作者：Kroencke, Tim A.
作者单位：University of Neuchatel
摘要：An event study approach is adopted to investigate the drivers of the stock market around recessions. First, stock prices and dividends drop contemporaneously when accounting for different timing conventions. Accordingly, stock prices do not anticipate recessions due to an economic mechanism (cash flow news). Second, the variance of price changes increases at least as much as the variance of dividend growth during recessions. This result suggests that changes in the price of risk (discount rate...
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作者：Hryshko, Dmytro; Manovskii, Iourii
作者单位：University of Alberta; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We identify two sets of households in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) differing dramatically in their income and consumption dynamics, although both should be equally representative. The degree of consumption insurance in each subsample is consistent with the standard incomplete-markets model's prediction. We contrast PSID and administrative earnings data and study the patterns in international datasets modeled on the PSID. We find an important role of differential attrition based on...
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作者：Minesso, Massimo Ferrari; Mehl, Arnaud; Stracca, Livio
作者单位：European Central Bank
摘要：A two-country DSGE model with central bank digital currency (CBDC) is derived and used to analyze the open-economy implications of CBDC for the transmission of shocks, optimal monetary policy and welfare. The presence of a CBDC amplifies the international spillovers of shocks and increases international linkages. The magnitude of the effects depends crucially on the design of CBDC. Moreover, issuance of a CBDC by one economy increases asymmetries in the international monetary system by reducin...
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作者：Loria, Francesca; Matthes, Christian; Wang, Mu-Chun
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：Economic theories are often encoded in equilibrium models that cannot be directly estimated because they lack features that, while inessential to the theoretical mechanism that is central to the specific theory, would be essential to fit the data well. We propose an econometric approach that confronts such theories with data through the lens of a time series model that is a good description of macroeconomic reality. Our approach explicitly acknowledges misspecification as well as measurement e...
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作者：Hansen, Lars Peter
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：Climate change poses an important policy challenge for governments around the world. The challenge is made all that much more difficult because of the multitude of potential policymakers involved in setting the policy worldwide. What then should be the role of central banks? How are climate change concerns similar to or distinct from those of other natural disasters? Clarity of ambition and execution will help to ensure that central banks maintain credibility. By adhering to their mandated rol...
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作者：Chaumont, Gaston; Shi, Shouyong
作者单位：University of Rochester; Queens University - Canada
摘要：We study a directed search equilibrium with risk-averse workers who can search on the job and accumulate non-contingent assets under a borrowing limit. Search outcomes affect earnings and wealth accumulation. In turn, wealth and earnings affect search decisions by changing the optimal trade-off between the wage and the matching probability. The interaction between search and wealth provides important self-insurance. The calibrated model yields significant wage inequality as measured by the mea...
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作者：Alonso, Cristian; Berg, Andrew; Kothari, Siddharth; Papageorgiou, Chris; Rehman, Sidra
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：Implications of a new wave of technological change that substitutes pervasively for labor are examined with particular focus on developing countries. While the model considered is minimalist by design, the resulting conclusions are powerful: improvements in the productivity of robots drive divergence, as advanced countries differentially benefit from their initially higher robot intensity, driven by their endogenously higher wages and stock of complementary traditional capital. Capital-if inte...
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作者：Woodford, Michael; Xie, Yinxi
作者单位：Columbia University; Bank of Canada
摘要：This paper reconsiders the degree to which macroeconomic stabilization is possible when the zero lower bound is a relevant constraint on the effectiveness of conventional monetary policy, under an assumption of bounded rationality. In particular, we reconsider the potential role of countercyclical fiscal transfers as a tool of stabilization policy. Because Ricardian Equivalence no longer holds when planning horizons are finite (even when relatively long), we find that fiscal transfers can be a...
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作者：Kulkarni, Nirupama; Malmendier, Ulrike
摘要：Homeownership is considered an essential part of the American Dream and forms the foundation of upward mobility. We show that the upward mobility of children from lowincome families is not predicted by homeownership rates, but by homeownership segregation. Higher residential segregation between homeowners and renters predicts lower upward mobility of children from low-income families, while not affecting high-income families. We hypothesize the 1968 Fair Housing Act preserved homeownership se...
