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作者：Lian, Chen
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
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作者：Bahaj, Saleem; Foulis, Angus; Pinter, Gabor; Surico, Paolo
作者单位：University of London; University College London; Bank of England; University of London; London Business School
摘要：Using micro-data covering private and public UK firms, we document heterogeneous re-sponses to monetary policy; finding that employment at younger, more-levered firms is most sensitive. This heterogeneity is consistent with firm-level financial constraints. To show this, we exploit the fact that the homes of company directors are a key source of corporate collateral, but many directors live in a different region to their firm, allowing specifications controlling for demand. Younger, more-lever...
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作者：Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna
作者单位：Stanford University; Stanford University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：Unemployment recoveries in the US have been inexorable. In the aftermath of a reces-sion, unless another crisis intervenes, unemployment continues to glide down. Between 1948 and 2019, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate during cyclical recoveries was distributed around 0.1 log points per year. The economy seems to have an irresistible force toward restoring full employment. Occasionally, unemployment rises rapidly during an economic crisis, while most of the time, unemployment decli...
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作者：Kerr, Sari Pekkala; Kerr, William R.; Nanda, Ramana
作者单位：Wellesley College; Harvard University; Imperial College London
摘要：During 1992-2007, house price growth is strongly correlated with local entrepreneurship. We show with Census Bureau data that most of this entry is related to construction and real estate; these entrants tend to be small and short-lived. Using a 1998 Texas reform that allowed home equity lending for the first time in the state, we isolate that entrepreneur-ship through the collateral channel tends to be longer-lived and more balanced across sec-tors. The collateral channel is a tenth or less o...
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作者：Kozak, Serhiy
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：A production-based equilibrium model jointly prices bond and stock returns and produces time-varying correlation between stock and real treasury returns that changes in both magnitude and sign. The term premium is time-varying and changes sign. The model incorporates time-varying risk aversion and two physical technologies with different cash-flow risks. Bonds hedge risk-aversion shocks and command negative term premium through this channel. Cash-flow shocks produce co-movement of bond and sto...
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作者：Palazzo, Berardino; Yamarthy, Ram
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Office of Financial Research
摘要：Using daily credit default swap (CDS) data, we find a positive relation between corporate credit risk and unexpected monetary policy shocks during FOMC announcement days. Pos-itive shocks to interest rates increase the expected loss component of CDS spreads as well as a risk premium component. However, not all firms respond in the same manner. We show that firm-level credit risk is an important driver of the monetary policy response, both in credit and equity markets, and its role is not dimin...
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作者：Ehrmann, Michael; Wabitsch, Alena
作者单位：European Central Bank; University of Oxford
摘要：Central banks have intensified their communication with non-experts - an endeavour which some argue will fail. This paper studies English and German tweets about the ECB to show that its communication is received by non-experts, i.e. is not a road to nowhere. Following ECB communications, tweets often primarily relay information, become more factual and the views expressed more moderate and homogeneous. Some communications, such as Mario Draghi's Whatever it takes, trigger a divergence in view...
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作者：Gortz, Christoph; Gunn, Christopher; Lubik, Thomas A.
作者单位：University of Birmingham; Carleton University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：We identify total factor productivity (TFP) news shocks using standard VAR methodology and document a new stylized fact: in response to news about future increases in TFP, inventories rise and comove positively with other major macroeconomic aggregates. We show that the standard theoretical model used to capture the effects of news shocks cannot replicate this fact when extended to include inventories. We derive the conditions required to generate a procyclical inventory response by using a we...
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作者：Brown, Martin; Hentschel, Nicole; Mettler, Hannes; Stix, Helmut
作者单位：Study Center Gerzensee; University of St Gallen; Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB)
摘要：How does the improved convenience of electronic payments affect consumer payment choice and cash demand? We study the staggered, quasi-random introduction of contact -less debit cards by a retail bank. We use account-level data and compare transactions which are eligible for contactless authentication to transactions which are not. We identify a significant convenience effect on debit card use at the intensive margin. The convenience elasticity is strongest among younger clients. Treatment eff...
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作者：Ryngaert, Jane M.
作者单位：Wake Forest University
摘要：Consumers with longer-tailed subjective probability distributions of inflation anticipate lower real consumption growth and are more favorably inclined to purchasing durable goods. I propose a model in which rare inflation disasters increase the cost of future credit by raising debt issuance costs, prompting consumers to stock up on debt and move purchases to the present. Consistent with this theory, consumers with longer-tailed distributions anticipate higher future interest rates. The effect...
