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作者：An, Li; Lou, Dong; Shi, Donghui
作者单位：Tsinghua University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Fudan University
摘要：What are the social-economic consequences of financial market bubbles and crashes? Using novel comprehensive administrative data from China, we document a substantial increase in inequality of wealth held in equity by Chinese households in the 2014-15 bubble-crash episode: the largest 0.5% households in the equity market gain, while the bottom 85% lose, 250B RMB through active trading in this period, or 30% of either group's initial equity wealth. In comparison, the return differential between...
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作者：Gorton, Gary; Ordonez, Guillermo
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Safe assets are demanded as stores of value (to smooth consumption inter-temporally) and as collateral (to facilitate credit intra-temporally). Some are supplied publicly (government bonds) and some privately (asset-backed securities). Private assets are heterogeneous in quality, and information about their quality reduces their safety properties. We show that government bonds discourage both production of (crowding quantity out) and information about (crowding safety in) private assets. Hence...
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作者：Burger, John D.; Warnock, Francis E.; Warnock, Veronica Cacdac
作者单位：Loyola University Maryland; University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Virginia
摘要：International portfolio flows converge in the medium run to a country-specific, supply-side estimate of their natural level. Our estimate of the natural level of capital flows, KF *, has impressive out-of-sample empirical features, greatly improves our ability to model no-toriously volatile capital flows and performs well against out-of-sample and in-sample fil-tering techniques. Further, the gap between actual inflows and KF* helps predict sudden stop episodes, equity returns, and capital flo...
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作者：Osotimehin, Sophie
作者单位：University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal
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作者：Imrohoroglu, Ayse; Zhao, Kai
作者单位：University of Southern California; University of Connecticut
摘要：The share of wealth held by the top one percent of Americans has increased from about 24% in 1980 to 40% in 2010. This paper examines the role played by the decline in the world interest rates in accounting for this observation. Our model consists of households who either run a business or work for others. In this environment, the decline in the interest rate increases wealth inequality since entrepreneurs benefit from lower financing costs while workers face lower returns. This channel can ac...
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作者：Iovino, Luigi; La'O, Jennifer; Mascarenhas, Rui
作者单位：Bocconi University; Bocconi University; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：What is the nature of optimal monetary policy and central bank disclosure when the monetary authority is uncertain about the economic state? We consider a model in which firms make nominal pricing decisions and the central bank sets the nominal interest rate under incomplete information. We find that implementing flexible-price allocations is both feasible and optimal despite the existence of numerous measurability constraints; we explore a series of different implementations. When monetary po...
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作者：Caunedo, Julieta; Keller, Elisa
作者单位：Cornell University; University of Exeter
摘要：Technical change shifts the relative importance of certain economic activities over others, effectively determining the incidence of barriers to the transition of workers across occupations on output and inequality. To what extent has technical change mitigated or exacerbated the incidence of these barriers? To answer this question we study the link between occupation-specific labor market barriers, as measured in Hsieh et al. (2019), and capital-embodied technical change (CETC), as measured i...
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作者：Andrade, Philippe; Ferroni, Filippo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
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作者：Doh, Taeyoung; Smith, A. Lee
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City
摘要：Expectations play a central role in macroeconomics. Expectations are empirically measured from surveys or financial markets and are frequently analyzed in Vector autoregressive (VAR) models alongside realized data of the same variable. However, this leads to two dif-ferent expectations for the same variable: the VAR-based forecast and the external forecast. This paper proposes a Bayesian prior over the VAR parameters which allows for varying degrees of consistency between these two forecasts. ...
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作者：Breitenlechner, Max; Georgiadis, Georgios; Schumann, Ben
作者单位：University of Innsbruck; European Central Bank; Free University of Berlin
摘要：Spillovers from US monetary policy entail spillbacks to the domestic economy. Applying counterfactual analyses in a Bayesian proxy structural vector-autoregressive model we find that spillbacks account for a non-trivial share of the slowdown in domestic real activity following a contractionary US monetary policy shock. Spillbacks materialise as a mone-tary policy tightening depresses foreign sales and valuations of US firms so that Tobin's q/cash flow and stock market wealth effects impinge on...
