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作者：Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Tambalotti, Andrea; Topa, Giorgio
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：Using subjective expectations data from the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), we estimate the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS)-the response of expected consumption growth to changes in the real interest rate. This unique data set allows us to estimate the consumption Euler equation with no auxiliary assumptions on the properties of expectations, which are instead necessary when using choice data. We find a subjective EIS of about 0.5, consistent with the resul...
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作者：Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel
作者单位：Harvard University
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作者：Wilkins, Carolyn A.
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：Central bank interest in issuing a fiat digital currency has opened the door to profound social-economic and policy issues. This paper presents a discussion of Agur et al. (2021), in which the authors study the optimal design of a central bank digital currency (CDBC). The main result of the work is that an interest-bearing CBDC (in particular, negative remuneration) alleviates the tradeoff between bank intermediation and the social value of maintaining cash. To be fully convincing from a polic...
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作者：Alvarez, Fernando; Argente, David; Jimenez, Rafael; Lippi, Francesco
作者单位：University of Chicago; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Luiss Guido Carli University
摘要：We use two quasi-natural experiments that encouraged the use of debit cards and facilitated the use of ATMs in Mexico to estimate the elasticity of crime and informality to the availability of cash as a means of payment. We then construct a simple model to quantify the private costs of restricting cash usage in the economy. Our model captures the degree of substitution between cash and other payment methods at the intensive and extensive margins. We estimate the welfare effects of restricting ...
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作者：Albanesi, Stefania; DeGiorgi, Giacomo; Nosal, Jaromir
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Geneva; Boston College
摘要：Using a nationally representative panel of credit reports, we show that the 20 01-20 06 credit boom and the 20 07-20 09 rise in mortgage defaults were concentrated among prime borrowers. Life cycle effects and mortgage investor activity are primary factors behind the evolution of debt and default in this period. These results hold across geographical regions, suggesting other factors, such as demographics, may account for the positive correlation between the concentration of subprime borrowers...
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作者：Baker, Scott R.; Davis, Steven J.; Levy, Jeffrey A.
作者单位：Northwestern University; University of Chicago; University of Chicago; University of Chicago
摘要：We quantify and study state-level economic policy uncertainty. Tapping digital archives for nearly 3500 local newspapers, we construct three monthly indexes for each state: one that captures state and local sources of policy uncertainty (EPU - S), one that captures national and international sources (EPU - N), and a composite index that captures both. EPU - S rises around gubernatorial elections and own-state episodes like the California electricity crisis of 20 0 0-01 and the Kansas tax exper...
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作者：Alpino, Matteo; Asatryan, Zareh; Blesse, Sebastian; Wehrhoefer, Nils
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; Leibniz Association; Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW); Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：How does fiscal austerity affect redistributive policies? We document that during austerity episodes, countries tend to increase marginal income tax rates on top earners, but not on average earners. We then show that, in response to an exogenously imposed fiscal rule, Italian municipalities increase local non-linear income taxes progressively. They do not ad-just other fiscal policies. College-educated mayors are more likely than less educated mayors to implement progressive reforms, and they ...
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作者：Andrade, Philippe; Coibion, Olivier; Gautier, Erwan; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; European Central Bank; Bank of France; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Using a survey of French manufacturing firms, we study how firms' expectations and actions are affected by both aggregate and industry-specific conditions. In response to industry-level shocks that have no aggregate effects, firms' aggregate expectations respond persistently. This is consistent with island models in which firms use the local prices they observe to make inferences about broader aggregate conditions. These patterns are related to observable characteristics of firms and the indus...
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作者：Salle, Isabelle
作者单位：Bank of Canada; University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute
摘要：Andrade et al. analyze the data from a large panel of firms and show how sector-specific shocks erroneously influence firms' outlooks about the aggregate economy. This paper is part of a broader research agenda that has extensively documented the existence of information rigidities using data from large-scale surveys of households and firms. This comment discusses the implications of this research agenda for central banking in light of a complementary empirical method, namely laboratory experi...
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作者：Morazzoni, Marta; Sy, Andrea
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：We document and quantify the effect of a gender gap in credit access on both entrepreneurship and input misallocation in the US. Female entrepreneurs are found to be more likely to face a rejection on their loan applications and to have a higher average product of capital, a sign of gender-driven capital misallocation that decreases in femaleled firms' access to finance. These results are not driven by differences in observable individual or businesses characteristics. Calibrating a heterogene...
