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作者：Fiori, Giuseppe; Scoccianti, Filippo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：Using two decades of Italian survey data on business managers' expectations we measure subjective firm-level uncertainty and quantify its economic effects. Firm-level uncertainty persists for a few years and varies across firms' demographic characteristics. Uncertainty induces sizable and long-lasting economic effects over a broad array of real and financial variables only when driven by its downside component - that is, uncertainty about below-mean outcomes. Economy-wide uncertainty, construc...
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作者：Kuhn, Moritz; Luo, Jinfeng; Manovskii, Iourii; Qiu, Xincheng
作者单位：University of Bonn; Lingnan University; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：The production processes at many firms rely on a highly choreographed and interdepen-dent network of workers performing specialized jobs. We designed and implemented a targeted employer survey to measure the extent of coordination in work processes. We link this firm-level coordination measure to administrative data and find that firms with a more coordinated work process are more productive, pay higher wages, and experience lower worker turnover. Yet, these firms suffer more severe negative c...
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作者：Ferrante, Francesco; Graves, Sebastian; Iacoviello, Matteo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented shift of consumption from services to goods. We study this demand reallocation in a multi-sector model featuring sticky prices, input-output linkages, and labor reallocation costs. Reallocation costs hamper the increase in the supply of goods, causing inflationary pressures. These pressures are amplified by the fact that goods prices are more flexible than services prices. We estimate the model allowing for demand reallocation, sectoral product...
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作者：Ayerst, Stephen; Ibrahim, Faisal; MacKenzie, Gaelan; Rachapalli, Swapnika
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Toronto; Bank of Canada; University of British Columbia
摘要：Using global patents, citations, inter-sectoral sales, and trade data, we examine the interna-tional diffusion of technology through imported inputs. We use citations and sales data to characterize knowledge and production input-output tables for individual countries. Using these tables, we construct a measure of the flow of knowledge-weighted and production-weighted technology embodied in inputs imported from the US. We develop an instru-mental variable strategy to establish that increases in...
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作者：Li, Kai; Tsou, Chi-Yang; Xu, Chenjie
作者单位：Peking University; Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School (PKU Shenzhen); Peking University; University of Manchester; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
摘要：Imperfect information and learning are introduced into a production-based asset pricing model. Our model features slow learning about firms' exposure to aggregate productivity shocks over time. In contrast to a full information case, our framework provides a unified explanation for the stylized empirical features of the cross-section of stocks that differ in capital age: old capital firms (1) have higher capital allocation efficiency; (2) are more ex-posed to aggregate productivity shocks and,...
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作者：Onofri, Marco; Peersman, Gert; Smets, Frank
作者单位：Ghent University; European Central Bank
摘要：In a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that is calibrated for the euro area, a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) can have contractionary effects on the economy when interest rates on household deposits reach the zero lower bound, and such deposits are the only source of bank funding and household savings. However, by introducing additional assets to households' portfolios and alternative sources of bank funding, such as bank bonds, the NIRP becomes expansionary. Because both feat...
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作者：Zwick, Eric
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In this paper, Blanchet and Martinez-Toledano collect, expand, and harmonize wealth and income inequality statistics from prior research and public data sets for the U.S. and E.U. It is a huge undertaking. My comments focus on whether the data permit us at this point to draw these conclusions, or whether differences in methodology and data construction require further reconciliation. While I lean toward the latter judgement, I view this paper and the underlying project as a first, constructive...
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作者：Smith Jr, Anthony A.
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research
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作者：Evans, George W.; Hommes, Cars; McGough, Bruce; Salle, Isabelle
作者单位：University of Oregon; University of St Andrews; Tinbergen Institute; University of Amsterdam; Bank of Canada; University of Ottawa
摘要：The impact of finite forecasting horizons on price dynamics is examined in a standard infinite-horizon asset-pricing model. Our theoretical results link forecasting horizon inversely to expectational feedback , and predict a positive relationship between expectational feedback and various measures of asset-price volatility. We design a laboratory experiment to test these predictions. Consistent with our theory, short-horizon markets are prone to substantial and prolonged deviations from ration...
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作者：Armantier, Olivier; Sbordone, Argia; Topa, Giorgio; van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Williams, John C.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：We propose a new approach to assess inflation expectations anchoring using strategic surveys. Namely, we measure households' revisions in long-run inflation expectations after they are presented with different economic scenarios. This approach has a causal interpretation and maps directly into policy makers concerns. We implement the method in the summer of 2019 and the spring-summer of 2021 when the anchoring of long-run inflation expectations was questioned. We find that the risk of un-ancho...
