Demographics and the evolution of global imbalances

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Sposi, Michael
• 署名单位: Southern Methodist University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2021.11.005
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 1-14
• 关键词: demographics; Global imbalances; DYNAMICS; international trade

摘要

The age distribution influences capital flows through aggregate saving and labor supply. To quantify this, I build a dynamic model featuring overlapping generations and international trade among 28 countries since 1970. The equilibrium is replicated by a model with a representative household in each country that experiences an endogenous discount factor, which summarizes the co-evolution of demographics and relevant prices, affording computation of the exact transition. On average, a one-year increase a countrys mean age boosts its current account by 0.4 percent of GDP. Bilateral trade frictions dictate the cross-country response of capital flows to changes in a countrys demographics. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.