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作者：Bailey, Martha J.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
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作者：Boar, Corina; Midrigan, Virgiliu
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：What is the optimal shape of non-linear income and wealth taxes? We answer this question using a dynamic general equilibrium model with uninsurable idiosyncratic risk. Our analysis reproduces the distribution of income and wealth in the United States and takes into account the long-lived transition dynamics after policy reforms. We find that a uniform flat tax on capital and labor income combined with a lump-sum transfer is nearly optimal. The incremental welfare gains from steeper marginal in...
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作者：Matsuda, Kazushige; Mazur, Karol
作者单位：Kobe University; Peking University; Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School (PKU Shenzhen)
摘要：In 2009 the US government introduced a major income-contingent loans (ICLs) program for financing higher education. We investigate its welfare implications in the presence of income shocks, and endogenous dropout risk and college enrollment. While ICLs pro-vide valuable income insurance and thereby increase college enrollment by risk averse agents, they may also lead to adverse selection of individuals with lower ability and gen-erate a moral hazard cost of lowering educational effort and labo...
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作者：Capponi, Agostino; Cheng, Wan-Schwin Allen; Giglio, Stefano; Haynes, Richard
作者单位：Columbia University; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：In this paper, we explore a novel dataset of daily credit default swap (CDS) positions cleared by the largest CDS clearinghouse along with posted margins to study how collateral varies with portfolio risks and market conditions. Contrary to many theoretical models, where collateral constraints follow Value-at-Risk rules, we find strong evidence that collateral requirements are set an order of magnitude larger than what Value-at-Risk rules imply. The panel variation in collateralization rates i...
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作者：Proebsting, Christian
作者单位：KU Leuven
摘要：When workers are sluggish to change sectors and government demand is concentrated on few sectors, an increase in government spending has limited impact on production in other sectors and multipliers are higher. Compared to a one-sector model, a model calibrated to the 404 sectors of the U.S. economy raises multipliers by 0.5 when preferences feature no wealth effects on labor supply and by more if wealth effects are present. Relative price movements observed in response to spending shocks are ...
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作者：Kocherlakota, Narayana R.
作者单位：University of Rochester
摘要：There is a long-standing consensus view that macroeconomic stabilization should rely on monetary policy, not fiscal policy. This paper reconsiders this view using an analytically tractable heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model that is parameterized so as to admit a bubble in public debt. In this context, it is possible to stabilize either inflation or output in response to aggregate shocks by varying only fiscal policy (that is, lump-sum uniform transfers). In contrast, when the publi...
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作者：Ampudia, Miguel; Van den Heuvel, Skander J.
作者单位：European Central Bank; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Does banks' exposure to interest rate risk change when interest rates are very low or neg-ative? Using a high-frequency event study methodology and intraday data, we find that the effect of surprise interest rate cuts by the ECB on European bank equity values - an effect that is normally positive - has become negative since interest rates in the euro area reached zero and below. This 'reversal' was far more pronounced for banks with a more deposit-intensive funding mix. We argue that these res...
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作者：Boar, Corina
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Gayle et al. (2022) study the sources of intergenerational persistence in earnings using a structural model estimated with data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. In the model, altruistic parents choose whether to have children or not, how much time to spend with their children and how much time to work, as well as how much to consume. Earnings in the labor market depend on observable characteristics of individuals, as well as parents' education, ability, income and time investments. The...
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作者：Kuruc, Kevin
作者单位：University of Oklahoma System; University of Oklahoma - Norman
摘要：Whether, and to what degree, IMF lending succeeds in stabilizing economies remains an open question. Here, a synthetic control analysis of macroeconomic crises with IMF inter-vention is performed-leveraging the existence of similar crises without intervention-that finds positive recovery effects. In the first five years following a crisis, output differences are, on average, nearly two percent of GDP per year. Consistent with a liquidity channel, effects are hum p-shaped and fade in the medium...
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作者：Adam, Klaus; Gautier, Erwan; Santoro, Sergio; Weber, Henning
作者单位：University of Mannheim; European Central Bank; Bank of France; Deutsche Bundesbank; University of Mannheim
摘要：Using micro price data underlying the consumer price index, we estimate relative price trends over the product life cycle in France, Germany and Italy. Minimizing the welfare consequences of relative price distortions in the presence of these trends requires target-ing a significantly positive inflation rate: the steady-state inflation rate jointly maximizing welfare in all three countries ranges between 1.1%-1.7%. The welfare costs of targeting an inflation rate of zero, as suggested by monet...
