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作者：Flemming, Jean; L'Huillier, Jean-Paul; Piguillem, Facundo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Brandeis University
摘要：We analyze the optimal macroprudential policy under the presence of persistent permanent shocks, which convey information about future growth. In this context, crises are characterized by long periods with positive shocks that eventually revert, rendering the collateral constraint binding and triggering deleveraging. In this environment it is optimal to tax borrowing during good times, and let agents act freely leaving the allocations undistorted, including borrowing and lending, when the econ...
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作者：Richter, Bjoern; Schularick, Moritz; Shim, Ilhyock
作者单位：University of Bonn; Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Central banks increasingly rely on macroprudential measures to manage the financial cycle. However, the effects of such measures on the core objectives of monetary policy to stabilise output and inflation are largely unknown. In this paper we quantify the effects of changes in maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratios on output and inflation. We rely on a narrative identification approach based on detailed reading of policy-makers' objectives when implementing the measures. We find that over a four y...
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作者：Cerutti, Eugenio; Claessens, Stijn; Puy, Damien
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
摘要：Countries' gross capital inflows are not equally affected by changes in global conditions. Analyzing 21 advanced countries (ACs) and 33 emerging markets (EMs) between 2001 and 2015, we confirm that co-movements in capital inflows are concentrated in bank, portfolio bond, and portfolio equity flows to EMs. However, changes in global factors do not affect all EMs equally, even for the same type of flow. Investigating the characteristics of these sensitivities, we find that EMs relying more on gl...
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作者：Liu, Runjuan; Trefler, Daniel
作者单位：University of Alberta; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR); University of Toronto; University of Toronto
摘要：We study how the rise of unaffiliated trade in services with China and India has impacted U.S. labour markets. The topic has two understudied aspects: it deals with service trade (most studies deal with manufacturing trade) and it examines the historical first of U.S. workers competing with educated but low-wage foreign workers. Our empirical agenda is made complicated by the endogeneity of service imports and the endogenous sorting of workers across occupations. To develop an estimation frame...
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作者：Saggi, Kamal; Wong, Woan Foong; Yildiz, Halis Murat
作者单位：Vanderbilt University; University of Oregon; Toronto Metropolitan University
摘要：In a three-country model of endogenous free trade agreements (FTAs), we study the effects of requiring ETA members to eliminate tariffs on one another, as is essentially stipulated under current WTO rules. We explain why, in the absence of such a requirement, FTAs members impose positive tariffs on each other even when maximizing their joint welfare. We show that requiring ETA members to eliminate internal tariffs induces them to lower their external tariffs. Such external trade liberalization...
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作者：Steinberg, Joseph B.
作者单位：University of Toronto
摘要：On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. The trade policies that will replace E.U. membership are uncertain, however, and speculation abounds that this uncertainty will cause immediate harm to the U.K. economy. In this paper, I use a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms, endogenous export participation, and stochastic trade costs to quantify the impact of uncertainty about post-Brexit trade policies. I find that the total consumption-equival...
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作者：Nocco, Antonella; Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P.; Salto, Matteo
作者单位：University of Salento; Bocconi University
摘要：How should multilateral trade policy be designed in a world in which countries differ in terms of market access and technology, and firms with market power differ in terms of productivity? We answer this question in a model of monopolistic competition in which variable markups increasing in firm size are a key source of misallocation across firms and countries. We use 'disadvantaged' to refer to countries with smaller market size, worse state of technology (in terms of higher innovation and pr...
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作者：Goldbach, Stefan; Nagengast, Arne J.; Steinmueller, Elias; Wamser, Georg
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：This paper examines the relationship between foreign and domestic investment activity of multinational enterprises. The empirical analysis is based on micro data of German firms and their operations at home and abroad, including information on investment in fixed assets. The empirical approach, which rests upon extensive and intensive margin variation, is shown to produce very robust results. These suggest a positive relationship between foreign and home investment in real capital. This positi...
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作者：Asquith, Brian; Goswami, Sanjana; Neumark, David; Rodriguez-Lopez, Antonio
作者单位：W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research; University of California System; University of California Irvine; National Bureau of Economic Research; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Universidad Autonoma de Baja California
摘要：International trade exposure affects job flows along the intensive margin (from expansions and contractions of firms' employment) as well as along the extensive margin (from births and deaths of firms). This paper uses 1992-2011 employment data from U.S. establishments to construct job flows at both the industry and commuting-zone levels, and then estimates the impact of the 'China shock' on each job-flow type. Using the two most influential measures of Chinese exposure, we find that the China...
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作者：Docquier, Frederic; Iftikhar, Zainab
作者单位：Universite Catholique Louvain; Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique - FNRS; University of Bielefeld; Goethe University Frankfurt
摘要：This paper revisits the effect of brain drain on development and inequality using a two-sector model with formal and informal labor markets. Contrary to existing studies, we use a search-and-matching setting that allows to endogenize the employment structure and the wage differentials between different skill groups in the same sector, and between workers with identical skills employed in different sectors. Theoretically, the brain drain induces ambiguous welfare effects for those left behind a...
