Brexit and the macroeconomic impact of trade policy uncertainty

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Steinberg, Joseph B.
• 署名单位: University of Toronto
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2019.01.009
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 175-195
• 关键词: Brexit trade policy uncertainty; TRADE; Protectionism; welfare; Export participation; Market penetration

摘要

On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. The trade policies that will replace E.U. membership are uncertain, however, and speculation abounds that this uncertainty will cause immediate harm to the U.K. economy. In this paper, I use a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms, endogenous export participation, and stochastic trade costs to quantify the impact of uncertainty about post-Brexit trade policies. I find that the total consumption-equivalent welfare cost of Brexit for U.K. households is between 0.4 and 1.2%, but less than a quarter of a percent of this cost is due to uncertainty. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.