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作者：Vicondoa, Alejandro
作者单位：Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
摘要：This paper identifies anticipated (news) and unanticipated (surprise) shocks to the U.S. Fed Funds rate using Fed Funds futures contracts, and assesses their propagation to emerging economies. Anticipated shocks are identified as the expected change in the Fed Funds rate orthogonal to expected U.S. business cycle conditions while unanticipated shocks are the one-step ahead forecast error. Anticipated shocks explain around half of the narrative series of U.S. monetary policy shocks. To identify...
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作者：Galiani, Sebastian; Torre, Ivan; Torrens, Gustavo
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; The World Bank; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We develop a simple dynamic model of policy reform that captures some of the determinants that underlie the differences between the reform paths taken by a number of countries since the early 1990s. The model focuses on the interaction between domestic institutions and international organizations that promote reform, on the one hand, and the political incentives for reversing reforms, on the other. At equilibrium, there are three types of reform paths. A country can undergo a full-scale, lasti...
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作者：Azzimonti, Marina
作者单位：State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：I analyze how partisan conflict about trade policy affects foreign direct investment flows to the US using a novel indicator, the Trade Partisan Conflict Index (TPCI). Partisan conflict is relevant for the evolution of cross-border capital flows because the expected returns on investment projects are less predictable when the timing, size, and composition of trade policy is uncertain. The trade partisan conflict index tracks the evolution of political disagreement among policymakers on topics ...
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作者：Blaum, Joaquin; Lelarge, Claire; Peters, Michael
作者单位：Brown University; Universite Paris Saclay; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSAE Paris; Yale University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Commonly used firm-based models of importing imply that firm productivity should have no effect on the allocation of expenditure across a common set of sourcing countries. Using French data, we show that this homotheticity property is soundly rejected: larger firms concentrate their import spending on their top varieties, holding the sourcing strategy fixed. To rationalize this finding, we propose a novel model of importing that features (i) a complementarity between firm productivity and inpu...
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作者：Bocola, Luigi; Bornstein, Gideon; Dovis, Alessandro
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：A large literature has developed quantitative versions of the Eaton and Gersovitz (1981) model to analyze default episodes on external debt. In this paper, we study whether the same framework can be applied to the analysis of debt crises in which domestic public debt plays a prominent role. We consider a model where a government can issue debt to both domestic and foreign investors, and we derive conditions under which their sum is the relevant state variable for default incentives. We then ap...
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作者：Artuc, Erhan; Porto, Guido; Rijkers, Bob
作者单位：The World Bank; National University of La Plata
摘要：This paper characterizes the trade-off between the income gains and the inequality costs of trade using survey data for 54 developing countries. Tariff data on agricultural and manufacturing goods are combined with household survey data on detailed income and expenditure patterns to estimate the first-order effects of the elimination of import tariffs on household welfare. The paper assesses how these welfare effects vary across the distribution by estimating impacts on the consumption of trad...
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作者：Gervais, Antoine; Jensen, J. Bradford
作者单位：University of Sherbrooke; Georgetown University; Peterson Institute for International Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In this paper, we use a unique dataset on the distribution of output and demand across regions of the United States to construct measures of trade costs for 969 service and manufacturing industries. Our method is a natural extension of the gravity model of trade and identifies trade costs in the absence of trade data. As expected, our measures of trade costs are higher on average for service industries. However, there is considerable variation across industries within sectors. Using our measur...
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作者：Eppinger, Peter S.
作者单位：Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen
摘要：Major technological advances have recently spurred a new wave of offshoring in services, which used to be non-tradable. Should service workers in developed countries worry about their jobs? Trade theory has given a nuanced answer to this question, suggesting that efficiency gains from offshoring may counteract direct job losses, which leaves the predicted net effect ambiguous. This paper investigates the employment effects of service offshoring in a newly combined and exceptionally detailed pa...
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作者：Senay, Ozge; Sutherland, Alan
作者单位：University of St Andrews; University of St Andrews; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Recent literature shows that, when international financial trade is restricted to autarky or a single bond, there are internal and external welfare trade-offs that imply optimal monetary policy, in principle, deviates from inflation targeting in order to offset real exchange rate misalignments. This paper develops a more realistic model of incomplete markets, where there is international trade in multiple assets. The analysis shows that the presence of multiple assets creates a potentially pow...
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作者：Bircan, Cagatay
作者单位：European Bank of Reconstructon & Development
摘要：We examine the ownership structure and productivity of multinational affiliates and their effects on domestic industry. We first separate plant-level efficiency into a physical productivity and a price component. Multinationals target plants with high prices and markups. Upon acquisition they raise physical productivity but lower prices, leaving markups unchanged, especially when they are majority owners. This pro-competitive effect means that multinationals' productivity effects may be previo...
