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作者：Frankel, Jeffrey; Rey, Helene
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作者：Epstein, Brendan; Shapiro, Alan Finkelstein; Gonzalez Gomez, Andres
作者单位：University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Lowell; Tufts University; Banco de la Republica Colombia
摘要：We use a panel structural vector autoregression methodology to study the impact of global financial risk shocks in emerging market economies (EMEs) versus small open advanced economies (SOAEs). The short-term responses of GDP, investment, and un- employment are similar in EMEs compared to SOAEs, but their medium-term responses differ considerably. In EMEs the shock propagates less across GDP and investment, and the response of unemployment is prominently more subdued. Further analysis suggests...
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作者：Cociuba, Simona E.; Ramanarayanan, Ananth
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario)
摘要：Asset price data imply a large degree of international risk sharing, while aggregate consumption data do not. We show that a model with trade in goods and endogenously segmented asset markets can account for this puzzling discrepancy. Active households who pay a fixed cost to transfer money into or out of assets share risk within and across countries, and their marginal utility growth prices assets, so asset prices imply high risk sharing. Inactive households consume their current income and d...
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作者：De Haas, Ralph; Poelhekke, Steven
作者单位：European Bank of Reconstructon & Development; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Tilburg University; University of Auckland; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We estimate the impact of local mining activity on the business constraints experienced by 25,777 firms across nine large and resource-rich countries. We find that the presence of active mines in firms' immediate vicinity (<20 km) deteriorates the business environment in tradeable sectors. Access to inputs and infrastructure becomes more constrained for these firms and this adversely affects their growth. In contrast, nearby active mines have a positive effect on firms in non-tradeable sectors...
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作者：Baier, Scott L.; Yotov, Yoto V.; Zylkin, Thomas
作者单位：Clemson University; Drexel University; University of Richmond; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We develop a novel two stage methodology that allows us to study the empirical determinants of the ex post effects of past free trade agreements (FTAs) as well as obtain ex ante predictions for the effects of future FTAs. We first identify 908 unique estimates of the effects of FTAs on different trading pairs for the years 1986-2006. We then employ these estimates as our dependent variable in a second stage analysis characterizing the heterogeneity in these effects. Interestingly, most of this...
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作者：Jung, Jae Wook; Simonovska, Ina; Weinberger, Ariel
作者单位：Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP); University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Oklahoma System; University of Oklahoma - Norman
摘要：We quantify a general equilibrium model of international trade and pricing-to-market that features firm-level heterogeneity and consumers with non-homothetic preferences-generalized CES (GCES). We demonstrate theoretically that, relative to existing frameworks, the GCES model exhibits features of the data that are essential to conduct quantitative analysis. The framework can reconcile the documented price dispersion across firms and markets, while maintaining consistency with cross-sectional o...
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作者：Chatterjee, Satyajit; Eyigungor, Burcu
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：A sovereign default model in which the sovereign derives private benefits from public office and contests elections to stay in power is developed. The economy's growth process is modeled as a Markov switching regime, which is shown to be a better description of the data for our set of emerging economies. In the model, consistent with evidence, the sovereign is less likely to be reelected if economic growth is weak. In the low-growth regime, there is higher probability of loss of private benefi...
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作者：Dix-Carneiro, Rafael; Kovak, Brian K.
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Carnegie Mellon University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We use both longitudinal administrative data and cross-sectional household survey data to study the margins of labor market adjustment following Brazil's early 1990s trade liberalization. We document how workers and regional labor markets adjust to trade-induced changes in local labor demand, examining various adjustment margins, including earnings and wage changes; interregional migration; shifts between tradable and nontradable employment; and shifts between formal employment, informal emplo...
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作者：Leibovici, Fernando; Waugh, Michael E.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper quantitatively investigates the extent to which variation in the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution can help account for puzzling features of cyclical fluctuations of international trade volumes. Our insight is that, because international trade is time-intensive, variation in the rate at which agents are willing to substitute across time affects how trade volumes respond to changes in output and prices. We use a standard small open economy model with time-intensive internat...
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作者：Beladi, Hamid; Chakrabarti, Avik
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas at San Antonio; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Milwaukee
摘要：We present a tractable general equilibrium model to capture the effects of divisionalization on trade in oligopolistic industries. Divisionalization reduces the incentives for diversification in production. The extensive margins of trade expand as a result of divisionalization, facilitating specialization toward the direction of comparative advantage, with exports rising in the case of domestic divisionalization and imports rising in the case of foreign divisionalization. This effect of intern...
