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作者：Emlinger, Charlotte; Poncet, Sandra
作者单位：heSam Universite; Universite Pantheon-Sorbonne; Paris School of Economics
摘要：We investigate the supply-side repercussions on Chinese imports after the entry of multinational retailers in China. We exploit sector- and origin-country level import data for a panel of Chinese cities between 1997 and 2012, and differentiate between retailer and non retailer goods and across countries of origin of imports. We find that international global retail presence in Chinese cities produces a disproportionate rise in retail good imports from the retailers' country of origin. Our resu...
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作者：Fatum, Rasmus; Liu, Runjuan; Tong, Jiadong; Xu, Jiayun
作者单位：University of Alberta; Nankai University; Nankai University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; University of Copenhagen
摘要：A premise of beggar-thy-neighbor policies is that currency depreciations lead to export growth. This premise, however, does not seem validated as there is no consensus in the empirical literature regarding the impact of exchange rate changes on trade flows. We reexamine whether currency fluctuations are systematically associated with trade flows using a rich and unique Chinese customs dataset spanning the universe of bilateral Chinese transaction level trades over the 2000 to 2011 period. This...
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作者：Lee, Eunhee; Yi, Kei-Mu
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; University of Houston System; University of Houston; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
摘要：We assess the role of global value chains in transmitting global integration shocks to aggregate trade as well as distributional outcomes. We develop a multi-country general equilibrium trade model that features multistage production, with different stages having different productivities and using factors (occupations) with different intensities. The model also features a Roy mechanism, in which heterogeneous workers endogenously choose their sector and occupation. Country- and worker-level co...
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作者：Acharya, Sushant; Bengui, Julien
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Universite de Montreal; Universite de Montreal
摘要：Motivated by debates surrounding international capital flows during the Great Recession, we conduct a positive and normative analysis of capital flows when a region of the global economy experiences a liquidity trap. Capital flows reduce inefficient output fluctuations in this region by inducing exchange rate movements that reallocate expenditure towards the goods it produces. Restricting capital mobility hampers such an adjustment. From a global perspective, constrained efficiency entails sub...
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作者：Auray, Stephane; Eyquem, Aurelien; Gomme, Paul
作者单位：Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information (ENSAI); Universite du Littoral-Cote-d'Opale; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute for Humanities & Social Sciences (INSHS); Universite Lyon 2; Institut Universitaire de France; Concordia University - Canada; Universite de Montreal
摘要：We solve the Ramsey-optimal tax plan for a small open economy with an endogenously-determined real exchange rate. The open economy constrains the government's setting of the capital income tax rate since physical capital cannot be dominated in rate of return by foreign assets. However, the endogenous real exchange rate loosens this constraint relative to a one good open economy model in which the real exchange rate is necessarily fixed. We find that the dynamics of the two good small open econ...
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作者：Jacks, David S.; Novy, Dennis
作者单位：Simon Fraser University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Warwick; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We examine the evolution of market potential and its role in driving economic growth over the long twentieth century. Theoretically, we exploit a structural gravity model to derive a closed-form solution for a widely-used measure of market potential. We are thus able to express market potential as a function of directly observable and easily estimated variables. Empirically, we collect a large dataset on aggregate and bilateral trade flows as well as output for 51 countries. We find that marke...
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作者：Crowley, Meredith; Meng, Ning; Song, Huasheng
作者单位：University of Cambridge; Nanjing University; Zhejiang University; Zhejiang University
摘要：We estimate how a rise in uncertainty about future tariff rates impacts firm decisions to enter into and exit from export markets. Using Chinese customs transactions between 2000 and 2009, we exploit time-variation in product-level trade policy and find that Chinese firms are less likely to enter new foreign markets and more likely to exit from established foreign markets when their products are subject to increased trade policy uncertainty. Our analysis is based on the phenomenon of tariff ec...
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作者：Cruz, Marcio; Bussolo, Maurizio; Iacovone, Leonardo
作者单位：The World Bank; Universidade Federal do Parana
摘要：A growing literature aiming at explaining differences in productivity and access to global export markets across firms has focused on the internal organization of firms. This paper contributes to this literature by evaluating the impact of a program that aims at enhancing competitiveness of small and medium enterprises in Brazil by providing coaching and consulting on management and production practices. Specifically, the paper tests whether the program induces treated firms to reorganize know...
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作者：Korinek, Anton
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We show that capital flows to emerging market economies create externalities that differ by an order of magnitude depending on the state-contingent payoff profile of the flows. Those with pro-cyclical payoffs, such as foreign currency debt, generate substantial negative pecuniary externalities because they lead to large repayments and contractionary exchange rate depreciations during financial crises. Conversely, capital flows with an insurance component, such as FDI or equity, are largely ben...
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作者：Hettig, Thomas; Mueller, Gernot J.
作者单位：Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：According to the pre-crises consensus there are separate domains for monetary and fiscal stabilization in a currency union. While the common monetary policy takes care of union-wide fluctuations, fiscal policies should be tailored to meet country-specific conditions. This separation is no longer optimal, however, if monetary policy is constrained by an effective lower bound on interest rates. Specifically, we show that in this case there are benefits from coordinating fiscal policies across co...
