What can stockouts tell us about inflation? Evidence from online micro data

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cavallo, Alberto; Kryvtsov, Oleksiy
• 署名单位: Harvard University; Bank of Canada
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103769
• 发表日期: 2023
• 关键词: prices; Stockouts; inventories; Supply disruptions; COVID-19 pandemic

摘要

We use a detailed micro dataset on product availability and stockouts to construct a direct high-frequency measure of consumer product shortages during the 2020-2022 pandemic. We document a widespread multi-fold rise in stockouts in nearly all sectors early in the pandemic. Over time, the composition evolved from temporary to more permanently discontinued products, concentrated in fewer sectors. We show that unexpected shocks to stockout levels have significant inflationary effects within three months. These effects are larger and more persistent for imported goods and import-intensive sectors. We develop a model of inventories in a sector facing both demand and cost disturbances, and use the observed joint dynamics of stockouts and prices to show that these effects can be associated with elevated costs of replenishing inventories and higher exposure to trade.(c) 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BYNC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).