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作者：Demidova, Svetlana; Kucheryavyy, Konstantin; Naito, Takumi; Rodriguez-Clare, Andres
作者单位：McMaster University; City University of New York (CUNY) System; Baruch College (CUNY); Waseda University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：To provide sharp answers to basic questions in international trade, a standard approach is to focus on a small open economy (SOE). Whereas the classic tradition is to define a SOE as an economy that takes world prices as given, in the new trade literature it is defined instead as one that takes foreign-good prices and export demand schedules as given. We develop a gravity model that nests all its standard microfoundations and show how to take the limit so that an economy that becomes infinites...
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作者：Acharya, Viral V.; Rajan, Raghuram G.; Shim, Jack B.
作者单位：Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
摘要：We examine how a sovereign's ability to borrow abroad affects the country's growth and steady-state consumption when the government is both myopic and self-interested. Surprisingly, government myopia can increase a country's access to external borrowing and extend the government's effective horizon, giving it a stake in incentivizing private production and savings despite its self-interest. In a high-saving country, the lengthening of the government's effective horizon can incentivize it to ta...
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作者：Feenstra, Robert C.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis
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作者：Juvenal, Luciana; Petrella, Ivan
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Warwick; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We examine the impact of commodity price changes on the business cycles and capital flows in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), distinguishing between their role as a source of shock and as a channel of transmission of global shocks. Our findings reveal that surges in export prices, triggered by commodity price shocks, boost domestic GDP, an effect further amplified by the endogenous decline of country spreads. However, the effects on capital flows appear muted. Shifts in U.S. ...
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作者：Ascari, Guido; Fosso, Luca
作者单位：European Central Bank; De Nederlandsche Bank NV; University of Pavia; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Central Bank
摘要：A trend-cycle BVAR decomposition investigates the role of different slow-moving trends - i.e., globalization, expectations, automation, labor demand and supply - in shaping the slow-moving dynamics of trend inflation. Despite well-anchored expectations, slow-moving imported costpushfactors induced disinflationary pressure keeping trend inflation below target. The cycle block provides evidence of inflation volatility increasingly driven by international factors. These results can explain why, f...
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作者：Ben Zeev, Nadav; Nathan, Daniel
作者单位：Ben-Gurion University of the Negev; University of Pennsylvania; Bank of Israel
摘要：This paper examines customer demand-side factors that affect deviation from covered interest rate parity (CIP) with respect to the dollar ( i.e. , cross-currency basis), particularly when arbitrageurs are constrained. Using novel detailed daily transaction-level data on the universe of Israeli institutional investors (IIs), we employ a granular instrumental variable (GIV) estimation to investigate how IIs' FX swap demand affects CIP deviation. Our findings demonstrate that a one standard devia...
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作者：Lind, Nelson; Ramondo, Natalia
作者单位：Emory University; Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We present a model of trade, global innovation, and diffusion, inspired by Eaton and Kortum (1999). The specific structure for innovation and diffusion we propose, which leverages general results developed in our previous work (Lind and Ramondo, 2023a), allows us to measure the flow of ideas across countries and over time. By deriving tractable expressions for productivity and expenditure, we can use easily-available international trade data to estimate both innovation and diffusion rates acro...
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作者：Benguria, Felipe; Wagner, Rodrigo
作者单位：University of Kentucky; Universidad Adolfo Ibanez
摘要：A recent literature emphasizes the prominence of dominant currencies in international trade invoicing and the role of invoice currencies in the transmission of exchange rate shocks. In this paper, we examine the introduction of the euro as a once -in -a -century natural experiment that induced a substantial shifting in invoice currencies, allowing us to test existing theories. We use unique data on the invoice currencies of the universe of export and import transactions of Chilean firms tradin...
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作者：Guimaraes, Bernardo; Sheedy, Kevin D.
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：This paper presents a theory of institutional specialization in which some countries uphold the rule of law while others choose extractive institutions, even when countries are ex -ante identical. The driving force of specialization is that for incumbents in each country, the first steps to the rule of law have the greatest cost. Good institutions require sharing power and rents, but in places where power is already shared broadly, each power base or branch of government underpinning instituti...
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作者：Handley, Kyle; Limbo, Nuno; Ludema, Rodney D.; Yu, Zhi
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; Georgetown University
摘要：We examine the role of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) in shaping the import decisions of firms. In a model where firms must incur sunk costs to adopt new imported varieties of an input, reduction in TPU for a given input increases imports of that input (a substitution effect) possibly other inputs (a scale effect). We explore this in the context of China's accession to WTO, which bound China's tariffs. We find that, controlling for current tariffs, the threat reversion to past high tariffs red...
