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作者：Jiao, Yang
作者单位：Singapore Management University
摘要：I jointly study the optimal bailout policy and monetary policy in open economies that borrow in foreign currency from international lenders. A policy dilemma emerges during financial crises. Policymakers trade off the benefit of more bailouts alleviating firms' financial constraints against the cost of larger currency devaluation, which tightens firms' financial constraints. I embed the optimal bailout in an otherwise standard sudden stopmodel with nominal rigidities. The model sheds light on ...
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作者：Davis, J. Scott; van Wincoop, Eric
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：During a downturn in the global financial cycle there is a simultaneous retrenchment in gross capital flows and a fall in risky asset prices. The global financial cycle is closely related to fluctuations in risk appetite. We develop a model that can simultaneously produce a fall in gross outflows, inflows, and asset prices following an increase in global risk aversion. There is heterogeneity across investors within a country in the willingness to hold risky assets and to hold foreign assets. T...
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作者：Blanchard, Emily J.; Bown, Chad P.; Chor, Davin
作者单位：Dartmouth College; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Peterson Institute for International Economics; Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We uncover evidence that the US-China trade war was consequential for voting outcomes in the 2018 congressional midterm election. Republican House candidates lost support in counties more exposed to tariff retaliation, but saw no appreciable gains in counties that received more direct US tariff protection. The electoral losses were only modestly mitigated by the US agricultural subsidies announced in summer 2018. Republicans also fared worse in counties that had seen recent gains in health ins...
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作者：Germaschewski, Yin; Horvath, Jaroslav; Rubini, Loris
作者单位：University System Of New Hampshire; University of New Hampshire
摘要：We study how financial frictions affect the importance of trend productivity shocks for macroeconomic fluctuations. Using long-run data from 17 small open economies (SOEs), we compare two variants of a workhorse SOE real business cycle model featuring a debt-elastic interest rate (DEIR), a measure of financial frictions. The first variant estimates the DEIR parameter, while the second fixes it to 0.001, effectively abstracting from financial frictions. On average, ignoring financial frictions ...
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作者：Gordon, Grey; Guerron-Quintana, Pablo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Boston College
摘要：How do local government borrowing, default, and migration interact? We find in -migration results in excessive debt accumulation due to a key externality: Immigrants help repay previously -issued debt. In addition to providing direct IV evidence on this mechanism, we show cities are heavily indebted, near state -imposed borrowing limits, vulnerable to interest rate increases, and default even after periods of robust population and productivity growth. Our quantitative model reproduces these fe...
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作者：Bondarenko, Yevheniia; Lewis, Vivien; Rottner, Matthias; Schueler, Yves
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：Geopolitical risk cannot be measured in a universal way. We develop new geopolitical risk indicators relying on local newspaper coverage to account for different perceptions. Using Russia as a case study, we demonstrate that geopolitical risk shocks identified from local news sources have significant adverse effects on the Russian economy, whereas geopolitical risk shocks identified from English-language news sources do not. We control for restricted press freedom by analyzing state-controlled...
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作者：Benguria, Felipe; Saffie, Felipe
作者单位：University of Kentucky; University of Virginia
摘要：The impact of the 2018-2019 trade war on total US exports depends on the direct effect of foreign retaliatory tariffs as well as on the ability of US exporters to reorganize global supply chains and redirect exports to other markets, away from retaliating countries. We document that the sharp decline in US exports to retaliating countries was compensated by a gradual increase in exports to other markets. We then develop a model of export reallocation to study the role of financial constraints ...
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作者：Mrazova, Monika
作者单位：University of Geneva; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：This paper suggests a rationale for the GATT/WTO ban on export subsidies by showing that, in a linear Cournot profit-shifting model in which countries invest in a policy infrastructure before imposing trade policy, an agreement banning export subsidies tends to be more self- enforcing than one banning tariffs. Oligopoly introduces asymmetry between import tariffs and export subsidies: terms-of-trade and profit-shifting effects run in the same direction for import tariffs but in opposite direct...
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作者：Davis, Josh; Fuenzalida, Cristian; Huetsch, Leon; Mills, Benjamin; Taylor, Alan M.
作者单位：Pacific Investment Management Company, LLC; University of Pennsylvania; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Benchmark finance and macroeconomic models appear to deliver conflicting estimates of the natural rate and bond risk premia. This natural rate puzzle applies not only in the U.S. but across many advanced economies. We use a unified no-arbitrage macro-finance model with two trend factors to estimate the natural rate r* for 10 advanced economies. We cover a longer and wider sample than previous studies and draw on new sources to construct yield curves and excess returns. The two-trend model impr...
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作者：Rogoff, Kenneth S.; Yang, Yuanchen
作者单位：Harvard University; International Monetary Fund
摘要：China's outsized real estate sector has long been a key engine of growth. However, with decades of construction at break-neck speeds having produced a massive increase in the quantity and quality of China's housing stock, the question arises as to whether diminishing returns are beginning to set in. At the same time, there is the question of whether real estate has been a major driver of today's high levels of local government debt, which may create heightened financial vulnerabilities. We inv...
