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作者：Sharma, Rishi R.; Sparber, Chad
作者单位：Colgate University
摘要：The H -1B program allows firms in the United States to temporarily hire high -skilled foreign citizens. The government restricts inflows of new H -1B workers and therefore creates potential rents typical of a quota. Importantly, however, the US allocates H -1B status by random lottery. We develop a theoretical model demonstrating that this lottery creates a negative externality that destroys quota rents by incentivizing firms to search for more workers than can actually be hired. Some firms sp...
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作者：Ersahin, Nuri; Giannetti, Mariassunta; Huang, Ruidi
作者单位：Southern Methodist University; Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：Using textual analysis of earnings conference calls, we quantify firms' supply chain risk and explore how firms react when supply chain risk increases. We show that firms with supply chains that span across continents, multinationals, and firms with fewer suppliers of an input face higher supply chain risk. In addition, firms exhibit high supply chain risk when their suppliers also do so. Firms manage supply chain risk by establishing relationships with closer and domestic suppliers and with s...
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作者：Mccully, Brett A.
作者单位：Collegio Carlo Alberto
摘要：Nearly $2 trillion of illegally trafficked goods flow across international borders every year, generating violence and other social costs along the way. Due to the absence of legal contracts and the challenge of finding trading partners in an illegal market, traffickers may rely on co- ethnic networks to facilitate trade. In this paper, I use novel microdata on the universe of large illegal drug confiscations in Spain to provide the first causal estimates of how immigrants and immigration poli...
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作者：Freund, Caroline; Mattoo, Aaditya; Mulabdic, Alen; Ruta, Michele
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; The World Bank; International Monetary Fund
摘要：This paper examines the reshaping of supply chains using detailed US 10-digit import data between 2017 and 2022. The results show that while US-China decoupling in bilateral trade is real, supply chains remain intertwined with China. Over the period, China's share of US imports fell from 22 % to 16 % as a result of US tariffs. US imports from China are being replaced with imports from large, developing countries with revealed comparative advantage in a product. In strategic industries, countri...
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作者：Huang, Yi; Panizza, Ugo; Portes, Richard
作者单位：Fudan University; University of London; London Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We use firm-level data to analyze international bond issuance by Chinese non-financial corporations, distinguishing those by sectors classed as 'risky'. Dollar issuance is positively correlated with the differential between domestic and foreign interest rates, and this effect is particularly strong for firms in risky sectors. Strikingly, firms in risky sectors use the proceeds to do more interfirm lending than firms in non-risky sectors. Moreover, this lending rose significantly after the auth...
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作者：Bloise, Gaetano; Vailakis, Yiannis
作者单位：University of Rome Tor Vergata; University of Glasgow
摘要：We revisit the occurrence of self-fulfilling crises in sovereign debt markets under time -varying interest rates and growth in Eaton and Gersovitz (1981)'s model. We show that, when longterm interest rates exceed growth, insolvency is solely caused by the exhaustion of the sovereign's debt repayment capacity subject to limited commitment. Indeed, high interest rates impose discipline on market sentiments, because creditors necessarily become more optimistic about solvency when the sovereign re...
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作者：Esquivel, Carlos
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
摘要：Capital and its sectoral allocation affect default incentives. Under general assumptions, default risk is decreasing in the total stock of capital and increasing in the share of capital allocated to non-tradable production. This implies that when competitive households make all investment decisions capital has two externalities: a capital-stock externality and a portfolio externality. . These hamper the ability of a benevolent government to make optimal borrowing and default decisions and are ...
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作者：Scholl, Almuth
作者单位：University of Konstanz
摘要：This paper studies how distributional and electoral concerns shape sovereign default incentives within a quantitative model of sovereign debt with heterogeneous agents and non-linear income taxation. The small open economy is characterized by a two-party system in which the left-wing party has a larger preference for redistribution than the right-wing party. Political turnover is the endogenous outcome of the electoral process. Fiscal policy faces a tradeoff: On the one hand, the government ha...
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作者：Grigoli, Francesco; Sandri, Damiano
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt news on household inflation expectations. People tend to underestimate public debt levels and increase inflation expectations when informed about the correct levels. The extent of the revisions is proportional to the size of the information surprise. Confidence in the central bank considerably reduces the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt, while confidence in fiscal auth...
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作者：Yu, Wenbo
摘要：I develop a two-country open economy model featuring asymmetric financial frictions to explain two puzzling observations during the 2008 global financial crisis: (1) real consumption growth declined more in foreign countries than in the US, despite the crisis originating in the US, and (2) the US dollar appreciated against foreign currencies despite a significant deterioration in the US net foreign asset position. Subject to a less stringent financial constraint, the US tends to hold more risk...
